U.S. Open Kalshi Prediction Market: Who is Trending Up and Down

We are officially less than two weeks out from the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills for the sixth time in history. While there is plenty of excitement going on surrounding some key names, there has been just as much skepticism around the big names.

Most notably, Kalshi’s U.S. Open prediction market has recently soured on Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau while they continue to back Matt Fitzpatrick and Cameron Young.

U.S. Open Winner - Kalshi

Scottie Scheffler 15%
Rory McIlroy 9.7%
Jon Rahm 5.1%
Cameron Young 4.8%
Ludvig Aberg 4.8%
Xander Schauffele 3.8%
Bryson DeChambeau 3.7%
Matt Fitzpatrick 3.1%

First looking at Kalshi, Scottie Scheffler is unsurprisingly the favorite to win, at 15% ($10 to win $52.86).

Trending Up

Leaning in the right direction are Matt Fitzpatrick at 3.1% ($10 to win $250) and Cameron Young at 4.8% ($10 to win $185.20).

Matt Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick is in the midst of his best season statistically. Out of nine top-25 finishes so far, he’s finished in the top-10 five times, top-5 four times, and has three wins at the Valspar Championship, RBC Heritage, and Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

Many would even argue that had he not slipped up a bit with a T52 finish at the Truist Championship, he’d be higher on the board. Fitzpatrick won the U.S. Open back in 2022.

Cameron Young

Cameron Young has been a name to watch all year with four of his eight top-25 finishes landing in the top four, which include wins at both the Players Championship and the Cadillac Championship.

Outside of his wins, though, he has other notable finishes with a T3 at the Masters and Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T10 finish at the Truist Championship.

Trending down

Looking down to Jon Rahm at 5.1% ($10 to win $151.72) and Bryson DeChambeau at 3.7% ($10 to win $242.97), both have seen their implied win probabilities fall.

Jon Rahm

Rahm saw his chances to win drop slightly from 5.8% to 5.1%. This comes as Rahm has gone down an inconsistent route since finishing T38 at The Masters. He immediately won LIV Golf Mexico City after the Masters, which was the start of his slope in LIV play, having finished T8 in Virginia, T16 in Korea, and is currently fighting to stay alive at Andalucia with a T28 standing at the time of writing.

While he’s been spiraling in LIV, he backed up his PGA play with a T2 finish at the PGA Championship.

Bryson DeChambeau

DeChambeau saw a lighter drop-off going from exactly 4% down to 3.7%. While he’s had strong outings in LIV Golf since March with two wins and two third-place finishes, he’s completely flopped in majors, having missed the cut at both the Masters and PGA Championship.

This is also the first time since 2017 that he’s missed two consecutive major tournaments. His saving grace, despite the downward trend, is that he’s won two U.S. Opens in 2020 and 2024.

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