College Basketball National Championship Market on Kalshi: Duke, Florida, UConn on Top

College basketball is officially back this weekend and this is one of the final opportunities to get in on Kalshi’s CBB National Championship market in the preseason. There are three teams that have pulled ahead on the board: Duke, Florida, and UConn. Duke leads the preseason board at 14%.

Florida sits just behind Duke at 13% and UConn is behind them with 8.1%. Florida and UConn account for three of the last four national champions. Duke has two Final Four appearances and four Elite 8 appearances since 2022. A $10 trade profits $52.86 on Duke, $62.46 on Florida, and $105.92 on UConn.

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Can Duke get over the hump?

This has the potential to be one of Duke’s best rosters in recent seasons. It brought in the second ranked recruiting class and the number two overall transfer player, John Blackwell. The recruiting class features 5-star freshmen Joaquim Boumtje-Boumtje and Cam Williams, both top-5 players in the 2026 class.

Duke has reached March Madness in each of Jon Scheyer’s four seasons, yet the Blue Devils have not returned to the National Championship game since 2015.

This season's rotation features experienced players in Cayden Boozer, Dame Sarr, and Patrick Ngongba along with several other highly touted freshmen. Blackwell comes in off a career-high season at Wisconsin with 19.1 points and 5.1 rebounds.

Gators experience pays off

The Florida Gators have arguably the most experienced team in the country. Most of them won a National Championship in 2025. Four of the Gators projected starting five were on that championship team, including Thomas Haugh, a projected lottery pick last season, who returned to Gainesville.

Other notable players who returned are Boogie Fland, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chinyelu. Denzel Aberdeen was also on the Gators 2025 championship team before transferring to Kentucky last season. He returned to the Gators through the portal this season.

UConn still has questions

While UConn carries championship pedigree after reaching three of the last four National Championship games and winning two of them, the Huskies lost plenty going into this season. The biggest losses are Alex Karaban, Tarris Reed, and Jaylin Stewart. Both Karaban and Stewart were on the 2024 National Championship team.

Key returning players include Braylon Mullins, Silas Demary, and Jayden Ross. Solo Ball is also on the roster, however, he’ll miss the entire season after having wrist surgery in the offseason.

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