Fernando Mendoza Starting? Kalshi Market Heating Up in Rookie's Favor

The reputation that Las Vegas will chew you up and spit you out could be a reality for Kirk Cousins. There have been several rumors surrounding the Las Vegas Raiders eventually benching their QB1, though the Raiders recently said they're sticking with Cousins. Still, where there's smoke, there's fire and Fernando Mendoza’s price to start this season is skyrocketing on Kalshi’s NFL market.

Kalshi is offering a market on which week Mendoza will make his first career start this season. Kalshi gives him an 85%+ chance to start within the next six weeks. Kalshi settles the market based on whether Mendoza makes his first career start in that week frame or appears as the official QB1 on the depth chart. A $10 trade on Mendoza starting profits $1.36 if it's in Weeks 9-10 or $1.51 if it's in Weeks 11-14.

When will Fernando Mendoza start his first game? Kalshi

Weeks 11-14 86%
Weeks 9-10 85%
Weeks 15-18 26%
Does not start in the regular season 6%

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Mendoza’s price to start within the next six weeks has surged since mid-October. On October 18, Kalshi priced him at 12% for Weeks 9-10 and 63% for Weeks 11-14.

Cousins in trouble?

Although Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak is persistent in saying that Cousins will remain the team's QB1, it’s hard not to lean on Mendoza making an appearance soon. After Cousins led the Raiders to a 3-0 start, they’ve since cooled off, losing their last four games, bringing them to a 3-4 record. Throughout the losing streak, several analysts and the fan base have called for Cousins to hit the bench.

Kubiak pushing back on benching noise

Even with the pushback on Cousins, Klint Kubiak gave a clear message on Cousins remaining the team's starting quarterback.

"Kirk is playing really well, and we're in the hunt," Kubiak said. "It's really important that we keep playing really well behind him and keep developing Fernando. Fernando is going to play at some point. It's not going to be this week.”

Cousins has made a strong case to remain the team's starter this season with 1,877 passing yards (3rd), 16 touchdowns (leads the NFL), and only five interceptions. It’s also worth noting that the Raiders' four-game losing streak came against top-tier Super Bowl contenders: the Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, and Los Angeles Rams.

Is Mendoza ready to step up?

The biggest thing to take away from Kubiak’s quote is that he wants to continue developing Mendoza. We saw Mendoza play extensively in the preseason, which clearly showed that he is still raw in some areas. He went 25/45 for 240 passing yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and four sacks.

With Kubiak confirming that Cousins will start in Week 8 against the New York Jets, his next opportunity to start will come on the road in Week 9 against the San Francisco 49ers.

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