Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton: Which American Has Best Market on Kalshi to Win?

The stage is set for the Men’s U.S. Open semifinals with a massive American showdown between Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe. Neither leads Kalshi’s U.S. Open winner market. Alexander Zverev is first at 49%.

Shelton (36%) and Tiafoe (9%) have the second and third best prices on the board, respectively, ahead of Karen Khachanov. As for the head-to-head between Shelton and Tiafoe, Shelton is a massive 74% favorite. To win the US Open, a $10 trade profits $16.58 on Shelton and $94.44 on Tiafoe. For their semifinal match, a $10 trade profits $3.27 for Shelton and $24 for Tiafoe.

Men’s US Open winner - Kalshi

Alexander Zverev 49%
Ben Shelton 36%
Frances Tiafoe 9%
Karen Khachanov 7%

US Open Semifinal: Ben Shelton vs. Frances Tiafoe

Ben Shelton 74%
Frances Tiafoe 28%

Hard court stock rising

Although neither Ben Shelton nor Frances Tiafoe’s record on hard courts for their careers is elite, they’re each in the midst of their best seasons on the surface. Shelton has a career 103-53 (66%) record on hard courts, which is his best playing surface among grass and clay. However, he boasts a 19-6 (76%) record on hard courts in 2026, the best of his career.

Tiafoe holds a 221-155 (59%) career hard court record. He has picked it up in 2026 to a 25-9 (74%) record, which is by far the best of his career.

Their career hard-court records do not match what they have done at the U.S. Open. Shelton has a 14-4 (78%) record at the U.S. Open since 2021, with this being his second time making it to the semifinal. This is Tiafoe’s 13th appearance in the U.S. Open since 2014, and he holds a 29-11 record (73%). In his last five appearances since 2022, he’s made at least the quarterfinals four times.

Head-to-head

This is the fifth all-time meeting between Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe and the second time at the U.S. Open. Shelton holds a 3-1 advantage all-time and 2-1 on hard court. They did meet in the 2023 US Open semifinals, where Shelton won.

They play Friday, September 11, at 7 p.m. ET.

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