Golden Start? USA Favored Over Paraguay on Polymarket and Kalshi

The stars and stripes are officially in action at the World Cup on Friday night as the United States hosts Paraguay in the Group stage at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. Prediction markets are backing the Americans to get off to a strong start.

USA Vs. Paraguay - Kalshi

USA 48%
Paraguay 24%
Draw 29%

USA Vs. Paraguay - Polymarket

USA 47%
Paraguay 24%
Draw 30%

The U.S. is favored by 48% and 47%, respectively, on Kalsi on Polymarket in the World Cup betting markets. At a $10 stake on Kalshi’s World Cup market, there is a potential return of $10.08 and a $10.94 return on the World Cup prediction on Polymarket.

It’s worth noting that both sites have a 1.5-goal spread in favor of the United States, with a 22% chance to cover. Paraguay has a strong 79% to cover. Not expecting a blowout.

Questions surrounding a slow start

The U.S. enters the tournament without momentum ahead of their opening match, coming off a rough 1-3 stretch of friendlies in preparation for the tournament, and were outscored 9-6.

Prediction markets also have a sense of doubt for them to come out of the Group stage. On the U.S. stage of elimination market, their 16% chance of being axed in the opening stage is up 6%, going from 10% to 16% in a matter of a few days.

On the contrary, they are down from 29% to 27% for a Round of 16 elimination and from 42% to 34% to be eliminated in the Round of 32.

Defense set the tone for Paraguay

Ranked 40 by FIFA ahead of the World Cup, Paraguay finished sixth in CONMEBOL but arrives dangerous and capable of an upset.

They play a defensive-minded game, which it showed, posting a 2-1 record with two shutout wins over Greece and Nicaragua, and lost to Morocco 2-1 for a total 6-2 scoring advantage.

H2H + World Cup history

This marks their eighth all-time meeting against one another, with the U.S. holding a 5-2 advantage. They last played in November 2025, where the USMNT won 2-1.

The United States has reached the World Cup 12 times. They’ve been eliminated in the Group stage four times, Round of 16 five times, quarterfinals once, and finished in third place in 1930.

2026 is Paraguay’s ninth time qualifying for the tournament and first since 2010 in South Africa. They’ve been eliminated four times in the Group stage, four in the Round of 16, and have a quarterfinals appearance in 2010.

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