Heisman Race Over? Kalshi Has Runaway for Jeremiah Smith

After a closely contested Heisman race through the first four weeks of the college football season, Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith has pulled away by a huge margin. Kalshi’s Heisman market prices Smith as the 54% favorite to win the award this season.

Smith sits 43% ahead of Miami’s Darian Mensah, who is at 11%. Mensah is the only other player with a higher-than-10% chance. A $10 trade on Smith winning the Heisman profits $7.92.

Heisman winner - Kalshi

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Pulling ahead

Smith came into the season with a 7% chance to win the Heisman. He remained in the single digits through the first three weeks of the season, peaking at 9%. Then his price took off once Ohio State got into conference play. He climbed to 24% after Illinois, 44% after Iowa, and 54% after Maryland. He's amassed over 500 receiving yards and caught 8 TDs over that three-game stretch.

While his price has risen, others have fallen. Mensah, preseason favorites Arch Manning and CJ Carr, and Trinidad Chambliss have all dropped significantly.

Heisman-worthy campaign

Through six games this season, Smith has 48 receptions for 916 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 19.1 yards per reception. Smith is also commanding a dominant 29% target share.

He’s had several standout games this season, including four 150+ yard outings. He’s also set a career high for a single game with his 217-yard, four-touchdown outing against Illinois in Week 4.

On pace for a record career

In his final college season, Smith is on pace to break several Big Ten records. To this point in his career, including this season, Smith has 3,474 receiving yards and 38 touchdowns. He already owns every major Ohio State receiving record (receptions, yards, and touchdowns).

If he continues at the pace he’s playing this season, he’ll break the conference record for touchdowns and receiving yards. He needs 145 yards to break former Purdue receiver John Standeford’s 3,618 career receiving yards record and needs two receiving touchdowns to break former Michigan receiver Braylon Edwards 39-TD record.

Smith is back in action in Week 7 on the road in a top-5 matchup with the Indiana Hoosiers.

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