JJ McCarthy Trade Prediction Market Continues Trending Up

The longer the Minnesota Vikings training camp goes on, the more Kalshi leans toward a JJ McCarthy trade. Kalshi’s NFL trade market currently gives McCarthy an 80% chance of a move.

His 80% trade price is up 7% in just over a week. In that same span, the QB competition between McCarthy and Kyler Murray doesn't favor him either.

Will JJ McCarthy be traded? - Kalshi

Yes 80%
No 97%

At his 80% trade price, you’d earn $6.25 in profit trading $25. Kalshi grades the market on December 1st, 2026, based on whether the Vikings trade him by then.

Where the QB1 battle stands

The QB competition in Minnesota is Kyler Murray’s to lose. He’s a massive 88% favorite to land the job as it is and has taken most of the first-team reps in training camp.

Minnesota Vikings Week 1 Starting QB - Kalshi

Kyler Murray 88%
JJ McCarthy 11%

Vikings insider for The Athletic, Alec Lewis, gave an update from training camp on both QBs, stating that Murray looked sharp while McCarthy has work to do.

“On Saturday, Kyler looked very sharp,” Lewis said about Muirray.. “Thought that was probably the best practice that I’ve seen him have in a Vikings uniform going back all the way through the spring… The conviction in what they were running seemed pretty solid. The layering of the football, the decisiveness, everything that I think anybody optimistic about the Kyler Murray signing would have wanted to see displayed itself during that Saturday practice.”

“I’d say J.J. McCarthy on Saturday had one of his poorer practices since he’s come back this spring,” Lewis continued on McCarthy. “The timing just felt a little off. This is not even to cover for J.J. McCarthy. I just think that, during Saturday’s practice in particular, he ran a lot of the drills where the struggles happened. He took a lot of reps with the first team, but there were some drills with the second team where you wonder if he’s taking an extra beat because nobody is open or if he’s just not seeing it.

The QB Whisperer

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is in his bag with Kyler Murray, and it’s nothing we haven't seen before. O’Connell is notorious for not only developing QBs but also getting the most out of them in any situation.

He’s responsible for developing Jared Goff with the Los Angeles Rams before trading him for Matthew Stafford. After acquiring Stafford, he pushed him to become a Super Bowl-winning QB.

After becoming the head coach in Minnesota, he revitalized Kirk Cousins career immediately. He then got a career-high season from Sam Darnold before he went on to win a Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks last season.

It’s also worth noting that in 2024, O’Connell and Minnesota signed Daniel Jones to the practice squad and later to the 53-man roster. One year later, Jones was on pace for a career season with the Indianapolis Colts before getting injured.

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