Kalshi Prediction Market Tabs Jon Rahm as Unlikely to Play on LIV in Q1 2027

Jon Rahm’s time with LIV Golf could soon be coming to an end, and Kalshi is leaning that way. Kalshi’s LIV Golf market currently suggests that Rahm will not compete in any LIV Golf tournament in Q1 2027 at a 68% price.

His market to compete in Q1 surged towards him being absent in a matter of days. In less than a week, Rahm’s market to compete in a tournament flipped from 67% to compete to 68% to miss all tournaments played throughout February and March.

Will Jon Rahm compete in a Q1 LIV Golf tournament? - Kalshi

Yes 34%
No 68%

The market grades on whether or not Rahm partakes in a single LIV tournament from January 1st to March 31st, 2027. Trading $10 pays $4.38 if Rahm doesn't play and $15.20 if he does.

Not much change

From just a week ago, not much has changed. LIV Golf reportedly owes Rahm over $100 million on his contract, which runs until 2029. However, with financial stability a major concern for LIV Golf as a whole, they may be forced to file for bankruptcy, leaving Rahm to never see the rest of his compensation.

What sparked the shift

Guaranteed money was the biggest reason Rahm went to LIV in the first place. If they aren't paying him, why would he stay? He never seemed fully bought into the LIV model of playing music, not playing 72 holes, the competition not being as deep, and he's struggled in majors since moving to LIV. If the money isn't there, there's no reason to stay.

Earlier in the week, PGA legend Gary Player offered some advice to Rahm about his future with LIV Golf and the legacy that he leaves behind when speaking with Golf Monthly.

"A beautiful thing about democracy is that we have a choice. Not like communist countries, where you don't really have a choice. Jon Rahm must decide that himself. You will never be given full recognition at the end of your career as a champion, as a world champion, unless you play on the regular tour. That was my choice, that was Nicklaus's choice, that was Tiger Woods' choice. And Jon Rahm must choose for himself. He's a very intelligent man. I hope he makes the right decision."

Essentially, Player is pushing for Rahm to return to the PGA Tour and warned that if he doesn't, he may never get the full recognition for his career that he deserves.

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