Kalshi Tabs Bill Belichick Among Coaches Most Likely to Be Fired

Although things are trending up for the North Carolina Tar Heels compared to their 4-8 finish last season, Bill Belichick continues to find himself on the hot seat. Kalshi’s college football market backs that, as it has a 56% chance the program fires him this season.

His price is among the highest on the board, behind only Mike Norvell at Florida State., Lincoln Riley at USC and Dabo Swinney at Clemson. His price has been volatile this season, with several stints over a 75% chance. However, with the Heels slightly trending up, his price has come down.

Will Bill Belichick be out by February? - Kalshi

Yes 56%
No 68%

Use the Kalshi promo code SI60 when you sign up to unlock an exclusive $60 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $25 in trades.

Kalshi settles on whether Belichick is still with the program by February 1. A $10 trade on him being fired profits $5.01.

Making improvements

North Carolina has gotten off to a respectable 2-2 start to its season, and the numbers have improved drastically. The Heels finished 2025 as the second-worst offense, averaging 19.3 points, and a middling defense, allowing 24.5 points.

In four games this season, the offense has improved so far with 25.0 points on offense and allowing just 20.3 points on defense. The defense ranks top five in the ACC in points allowed.

Where things could take a turn

Looking ahead, North Carolina faces a rough road for the rest of the season with the third toughest strength of schedule in the ACC. Below is the Tar Heels' remaining schedule:

Week 5: vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
Week 6: @ Pitt
Week 7: @ Duke
Week 8: vs. Syracuse
Week 9: vs. No. 4 Miami
Week 10: @ UConn
Week 11: vs. Louisville
Week 12: @ Virginia
Week 13: vs. NC State

Of their remaining nine opponents, three of the next four are undefeated. Eight of them sit at a .500 record or better as well.

Is retirement an option?

Retirement is certainly on the table and does count towards Kalshi’s market if he were to retire following this season. Depending on how the rest of this season unfolds, Belichick could call it a career. ESPN’s Heather Dinich spoke about a potential Belichick retirement before this season.

"When we talk about hot seats and Bill Belichick, to me it's more about retirement seat, retirement watch," Dinich said. "He's going to be [turned] 74 years old in April, and look, the guy is a winner; he's a competitor."

He’s currently the oldest coach in college football and may not want to face the scrutiny that comes with the job anymore.

Trading is risky, always trade responsibly. If your activity is becoming a problem, support is available by calling 1-800-522-4700.

Add us as a preferred source on Google