Lincoln Riley To Be Fired Kalshi Market Trending Up After Another USC Disappointment

Lincoln Riley’s tenure at USC hasn’t seen the success that many had hoped for. After a 5-1 start to this season and a sketchy run through the Big Ten schedule to this point, Riley is trending up on Kalshi’s college football coaches fired market. Riley is up to a 67% chance that USC fires him

Riley came into the season with a murky 21% chance and has risen to 46% following USC’s start to the season. Kalshi settles the market on whether he’s with the team or not by February 1, 2027. A $10 trade on Riley being out by then profits $4.54.

Will Lincoln Riley be out before February? - Kalshi

Yes 67%
No 55%

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Riley’s seat heating up

This is a make-or-break season for Lincoln Riley at USC, as he has not had the success that many were expecting when USC hired him in 2022. In four full seasons with the Trojans, Riley has gone 35-18 and has failed to make it to the College Football Playoff. On top of that, he has a 2-2 bowl game record. He’s also found himself ranked as a top-15 team three times and finished the season unranked in those seasons.

Looking at this season, Riley is off to a 5-1 start, however, three wins over non-Power opponents inflate the record. USC has also looked shaky in conference play so far.

It started the Big Ten schedule with a 42-35 win on the road against Rutgers as massive 21-point favorites. They lost their first game of the year in blowout fashion to Oregon 41-27. In Week 5, USC defeated Washington 25-21, however, it trailed for most of the game before taking the lead late in the third quarter.

The Trojans' struggles do not stem from the offense, as they’re putting up 37.3 points per game this season and 31.3 in Big Ten play. Defensively, USC has allowed 25.5 points per game, and 32 in Big Ten play.

Looking at the rest of the season, USC’s schedule is not forgiving, with road games against Penn State, Wisconsin, Indiana, and UCLA remaining, as well as a home game against Ohio State.

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