Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe Neck and Neck in Golden Boot Prediction Market Odds

Lionel Messi adds to his golden age, turning 39 on Wednesday. Can he add a Golden Boot? Prediction markets favor him. However, he’ll need to fight off Kylian Mbappe to do so.

As things stand, Polymarket and Kalshi’s World Cup markets share a similar outlook, with Messi leading the charge, followed closely by Mbappe.

World Cup Golden Boot Winner - Kalshi

Lionel Messi 37%
Kylian Mbappe 35%
Erling Haaland 15%
Harry Kane 12%

World Cup Golden Boot Winner - Polymarket

Lionel Messi 34%
Kylian Mbappe 32%
Harry Kane 15%
Erling Haaland 10%

The Golden Boot goes to the tournament’s top goal scorer, exactly how both markets decide the winner. Risking $20 on Messi to win pays $31.75 on Kalshi and $37.49 on Polymarket. The same trade on Mbappe would profit $34.63 on Kalshi and $41.23 at Polymarket.

Golden Race

Messi has been unstoppable. He leads all players with five goals following his hat-trick in Argentina’s 3-0 win over Algeria and a historic brace (two goals) against Austria to capture the all-time World Cup goal scoring record.

Mbappe is right behind him. He scored a brace in each of France’s two matches against Senegal and Iraq for four total goals. In France’s opening World Cup match, he became the team's all-time goal leader, and in his 100th cap for the team against Iraq, he added two more.

Haaland & Kane in the mix

Don’t count out Norway’s Erling Haaland and England’s Harry Kane in the Golden Boot race.

Haaland sits tied with Mbappe at four goals as well, with his two brace outings against Iraq and Senegal. He’s as pure a scorer as they come, with 59 goals in 52 caps for Norway. He and Norway face France in their final round robin game.

Harry Kane had another multi-goal performance for England in its 4-2 win against Croatia with his two goals. He’ll have his opportunity to heat things up in the race on Tuesday in England’s match against Ghana.

Market movement

Messi and Mbappe were even at 23% following their opening matches. With each of them scoring twice in their second matches, the market moved accordingly, adding 9% or more to each of their prices.

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