LSU vs. Ole Miss Market Insights on Kalshi: Why the Price is Moving

Lane Kiffin’s return to Ole Miss with LSU has been one of the most anticipated games of the college football season and a close one on Kalshi’s college football market. While LSU is the favorite now at 58%, this line has not stopped moving.

The moneyline has flipped back and forth between the two over 15 times since opening before settling on LSU after week 1. LSU now comes in with a 58% chance to win, while Ole Miss has 42%. A $10 trade profits $6.47 on LSU and $12.87 on Ole Miss.

LSU vs Ole Miss - Kalshi

Moneyline: LSU (58%) vs Ole Miss (42%)
Spread: LSU -2.5 (55%)
Total: 58.5 (Over 49%)

Why the market flipped

Ole Miss came into the season as the favorite in this one and had been favored from mid-July to early-September with as high as a 9% advantage on the moneyline at some points. The market backed returning pieces Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy, plus Pete Golding’s CFP run.

Then came Week 1 and Lane Kiffin’s debut game against Clemson. He and LSU were 9.5-point favorites before blowing Clemson out 51-10 made up of seven touchdowns and nearly 650 total yards on offense. The defense also only allowed 145 yards and eight first downs the entire game.

Ole Miss also helped flip the line despite a narrow 41-38 win against Louisville in Week 1. Louisville tested the defense with four second-half touchdowns and totaled 469 yards before Ole Miss won on a walk off field goal.

Recent movement

In the week leading up to this one, LSU’s price moved with Sam Leavitt being listed as doubtful with an upper body injury. The report was enough to force LSU’s 58% down to 55% while Ole Miss’ price took a 3% jump. A day later, his status bumped to questionable and LSU returned to 58% while Ole Miss also returned to 42%.

This is the ESPN College GameDay feature in Week 3 with a primetime kick off time of 7:30 p.m. EST on ABC.

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