Mariners Manager Dan Wilson Out? Kalshi Manager to be Fired Market Says Yes

The Seattle Mariners are a prime example of what a difference a year could make. Seattle was on the brink of the franchise's first-ever World Series appearance last season with a Game 7 loss in the ALCS. Now, Kalshi’s MLB market lists manager Dan Wilson as the most likely manager to be fired this season at 80%.

Wilson’s price not only leads the board, but Kalshi has priced him at 60% or higher since mid-May. Kalshi grades this based on whether Wilson is fired or leaves the Mariners by December 1, 2026. A $10 trade on Wilson being out profits $2.32.

Will Dan Wilson Be “Out” of the Mariners? - Kalshi

Yes 80%
No 24%

The rise and fall

Dan Wilson took over as the Mariners ' manager in the middle of the 2024 season after the team parted ways with Scott Servais after he went 64-64. Wilson made an immediate impact as he led the Mariners to a 21-13 finish on the season. 2025 was his first full year as manager, and his success continued, leading Seattle to just its third 90+ win season since 2004 and a Game 7 loss in the ALCS.

After last season's strong run, the Mariners are 11 games under .500 at the time of writing, with less than a 1% chance to make the playoffs on Kalshi.

Seattle went from a top-10 batting lineup and top-15 pitching rotation in 2025 to bottom-10 in both just one year later.

Where analysts are leaning

The consensus around the league is that the Mariners will fire Dan Wilson after the season. ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote on September 16 that Wilson will be out of a job barring any run to the MLB Playoffs.

“It's also regarded as a fait accompli that, barring a crazy run to the postseason, Dan Wilson's tenure as Seattle's manager will end.”

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale made a similar claim in writing, “Dan Wilson is expected to be fired if the Mariners miss the playoffs.”

The Mariners have nine games remaining in the regular season and sit 7 games out of the last AL wild-card spot.

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