Massive Shakeup in College Football National Championship Prediction Markets

Week 7 college football will go down as one of the most hectic weeks of the 2026-27 season. Several upsets and big ranking jumps drove massive movement on Kalshi’s National Championship market. Georgia remains favored at the top of the board at 17%.

Georgia first took over as the favorite to win the National Championship in Week 5 with a 15% chance to win, which shot up to 22% before coming back down. Four teams sit above a 10% chance to win the championship, including Miami, Notre Dame, and Ohio State as well.

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Risers

Miami and BYU were the notable risers. Miami’s price rose 3% to 15% after a double-overtime win against their rival, FSU. Miami’s price rose mainly because it became the new No. 1 after Georgia and Notre Dame lost. A $10 trade on Miami winning the National Championship profits $52.86.

BYU is gaining some steam after its top-10 showdown with No. 2 Notre Dame, where they won 28-24. BYU is the new No. 2 team in the country behind Miami and is now up from 1% to 3% in the latest update. A $10 trade on BYU would profit $302.

Fallers

Several contenders took a dip. Georgia is the most notable after losing to Auburn at home as the No. 1 ranked team. The Bulldogs fell from 20% to 17%. Notre Dame follows with a slip from 15% to 13% after its first loss of the season. Alabama lost to Tennessee in the “Third Saturday of October,” which forced a 4% drop from 9% to 5% as well.

The biggest drop among contending teams is the Texas Longhorns. Texas lost its second consecutive game to an unranked as a top-10 team. The Longhorns' downfall began in Week 6 when they lost to Oklahoma and continued in Week 7 in a loss at home to Florida. Texas now faces an uphill battle to make the College Football Playoff with several questions surrounding Arch Manning as QB1. Texas went from 10% to 3% after the loss to the Gators.

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