Mercedes Max? Verstappen’s Next F1 Team Prediction Market Points to Move

Could this be the end of Mad Max with Red Bull? Kalshi currently favors Verstappen staying at Red Bull, but rumors of a move are surfacing.

Verstappen has a 67% price to remain with Red Bull on Kalshi’s F1 market. However, McLaren is lurking, with the possibility of retirement also coming into question.

Max Verstappen’s Next F1 Team

Red Bull Racing 67%
McLaren 24%
Retires/No Team 9%
Mercedes 8%

Trading on him to remain with Red Bull profits $4.58 on a $10 trade. This market settles on Kalshi on March 12th based on what team he’s with by then, or if he has retired.

Why he would leave

Verstappen has made it clear that he isn’t happy with the direction that Red Bull is headed, hence why the market isn’t as strong on him staying there. Verstappen sits seventh with 76 points and multiple DNFs (China, Monaco, British GP).

He’s also been unhappy with the performance of his car and the rear-wing failures, causing spinouts at both the British and Austrian Grands Prix. After both incidents, he told the BBC he was “lucky.”

“It's super-dangerous because you can really hurt yourself two times. I was lucky in Austria, I was lucky here. That's why you get really fed up with it."

Verstappen continued, saying, “I want to just finish races, first of all. That would be nice. At the moment, too many things go wrong. It's as simple as that. Not even speaking about pace."

His case for staying

Immediately after Verstappen’s rant, Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies came out agreeing with Verstappen and even going as far as saying, “he’s right not to be happy.”

Team principal Laurent Mekies insisted Verstappen wants to stay, but only if Red Bull delivers a fast car and regulatory progress.

“Max has made it clear to us that he wants to continue with the team. It’s equally clear that he needs a fast car for him to be happy with the team. You may recall also that he has been vocal about the progress that we need to have on the regulations.”

Could Verstappen retire?

Verstappen has openly said retirement is an option after 2026. When asked by De Telegraaf, a Dutch media outlet, if he was going to retire following the season, he hinted at it.

"Privately, I'm very happy. You also wait for 24 races. This time it's 22. But normally 24. And then you just think about, is it worth it? Or do I enjoy being more at home with my family? Seeing my friends more when you're not enjoying your sport?"

Verstappen is back in action on July 19 for the Belgian GP where he has an 8% price to win on Kalshi.

New users can enter the Kalshi bonus code SIBONUS at registration to earn a $20 welcome bonus on one of the top-rated prediction market apps available today.

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