MLB Regular Season Start Date: Kalshi Sees a Lockout

While the MLB season is over, things are just heating up in the offseason as a potential lockout looms, and Kalshi’s MLB market falls in line with that. There is just a 24% chance that the MLB regular season starts on time.
Kalshi offers a market on potential dates that the MLB regular season starts. It grades the market based on which date the first game of the season comes before, with multiple dates in play. A $10 trade that the MLB starts on time next season profits $19.08.
2027 MLB Regular Season Start Date - Kalshi
- Before March 25, 2027 24%
- Before April 1, 2027 29%
- Before April 30, 2027 39%
- Before May 31, 2027 56%
- Before July 13, 2027 71%
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Headed for a lockout
There is less than a month until the current CBA deal expires on December 1 and the lockout officially begins. Similar to previous discussions, MLB owners continue to push to implement a salary cap, while the players have strongly fought against one.
The MLB is the only major professional sports league in the United States that does not have a salary cap. The salary cap disagreement was the reason for the 2021-22 lockout, which lasted 99 days and forced Opening Day back by roughly a month.
A salary cap would heavily impact some of the league's top contenders, including the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, whose rosters exceed $300 million. Put into perspective, should the league implement the proposed salary cap, the Dodgers would need to find a way to shed roughly $175 million, while the Yankees would need to do so with $84 million.
League owners also push that a salary cap would level out competition for teams that have a low-value roster, such as the Miami Marlins or the Athletics, which are valued around $100 million.
Aside from the disagreements on the salary cap, roster limits, the playoff format, and the MLB Draft are other topics that need to be agreed on with a new CBA deal.
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Sam has over six years of experience in the sports media industry with a focus on sports betting, covering lines, trends, shopping lines, and finding the most obscure betting specials. He joined SI as a part of their sports prediction market coverage. He’s a Florida State grad where he majored in Editing, Writing, and Media. He’s also covered college sports for The Sporting News.
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