MLB Trade Market: Sandy Alcantara, Tarik Skubal Percent to Be Moved on Kalshi

We are around one month out from the MLB trade deadline on August 3rd, and there are several big names on the board at Kalshi. Two names to watch on the markets are Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara and Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal.

Based on where each of their markets sit now, two very different outcomes are expected to come in what might be an active trade season.

Reading these markets

The way these markets are offered is the team with the highest percentage is favored to obtain that player. In the case of both Alcantara and Skubal, both the Miami Marlins and Detroit Tigers, their current teams, have the strongest chances to keep them.

If they remain with their respective teams beyond the trade deadline, a risk on either of them to be on the team following the deadline would win.

Alcantara trade?

Sandy Alcantara Next Team – Kalshi

Miami Marlins 34%
Chicago Cubs 15%
Los Angeles Dodgers 10%
Kansas City Royals 9%
New York Yankees 9%

MLB insider Jon Heyman is extremely bullish on Alcantara being on the move, stating that he is “at the top of his list” of players to be traded ahead of the MLB trade deadline.

“Sandy Alcantara’s number one here on my list—It’s been a little rough lately. He is an outstanding pitcher. We don’t know, of course, whether the Marlins are actually going to be sellers— They have a plethora of pitching, and that always could mean they could be trading somebody.”

.@JonHeyman's No. 1 early trade candidate?

Sandy Alcantara 👀 pic.twitter.com/SlQQWqJU9G
— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) May 6, 2026

Directly behind the Marlins on the board are the Chicago Cubs at 15%, who are dealing with a mess on the mound, especially now that Matthew Boyd is headed for surgery on a torn meniscus. Justin Steele, the Cubs' opening day starter, is reportedly still not throwing, while Cade Horton was also shut down for the season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery.

Padres in the running for Skubal?

Tarik Skubal Next Team – Kalshi

Detroit Tigers 20%
San Diego Padres 10%
Tampa Bay Rays 9%
Arizona Diamondbacks 6%
Chicago Cubs 6%

The stars are aligning here for Skubal to be on the move with the Detroit Tigers falling further and further from postseason contention, mainly thanks to Skubal’s elbow injury.

With Skubal set to enter free agency this offseason, they’ll be enticed to move him prior to the deadline and get some value back rather than letting him walk for free come the offseason.

As far as where, the San Diego Padres have the highest chance, outside of the Tigers, to land him ahead of the deadline. They are 5.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and just one game ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks. The addition of a pitcher like Skubal would certainly put them in a good spot to continue contending for that top spot in the division.

MLB insider Buster Olney gave his take on Skubal, flat out saying, “I think San Diego is going to get him.

Trading is risky, always trade responsibly. If your activity is becoming a problem, support is available by calling 1-800-522-4700.

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