NBA Prediction Market: Spurs vs Knicks on Kalshi and Polymarket Offer Different Angles

The 2026 NBA Finals are set with a rematch of the 1999 edition featuring the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks. Both major prediction markets in Kalshi and Polymarket are leaning towards San Antonio to win the series with 63% and 65%, respectively. However, it might be worth shopping the spread and point total between the two for the best value.

New York Knicks Vs. San Antonio Spurs Series Price – Kalshi

San Antonio Spurs 64% ($10 to win $5.23)
New York Knicks 37% ($10 to win $15.86)

New York Knicks Vs. San Antonio Spurs Series Price – Polymarket

San Antonio Spurs 64% ($10 to win $5.46)
New York Knicks 36% ($10 to win $17.39)

These markets on who is going to win the NBA Finals outright. The Spurs are the favorites on both Kalshi and Polymarket with similar percentages. Polymarket is offering slightly higher payouts than Kalshi for the same $10 risk on both the Spurs and Knicks chances of winning.

Reading the spread

New York Knicks Vs. San Antonio Spurs Spread – Kalshi

San Antonio Spurs -4.5 (53%) ($10 to win $8.26)
New York Knicks +4.5 (48%) ($10 to win $10.08)

New York Knicks Vs. San Antonio Spurs Spread – Polymarket

San Antonio Spurs -4.5 (52%) ($10 to win $8.95)
New York Knicks +4.5 (49%) ($10 to win $10.10)

Here are the opening point spreads for Game 1 of the finals, with the Spurs favored to cover 4.5 points. That means that they would have to win by five points or more to cover that number. For the Knicks to cover the spread, they’d need to either lose the game by less than four points or win the game outright. Similar to the series price, a $10 risk on Polymarket is offering slightly higher payouts than Kalshi on that same number spread.

Reading the Over/Under

New York Knicks Vs. San Antonio Spurs Over/Under – Kalshi

Over 217.5 (54%) ($10 to win $7.92)
Under 217.5 (48%) ($10 to win $10.08)

New York Knicks Vs. San Antonio Spurs Over/Under – Polymarket

Over 218.5 50% ($10 to win $9.70)
Under 218.5 51% ($10 to win $9.32)

Payouts aside, Kalshi and Polymarket have a 1-point differential separating them on the Over/Under. Those backing the Over can look to Kalshi for the slightly lower number, while those taking the Under can take to Polymarket for the higher number. Payouts on the Over for a $10 risk are higher on Polymarket, while those on the Under are more favorable on Kalshi.

Analysis

New York and San Antonio met three times before their NBA Finals matchup. Twice in the regular season, which they split, and again in the NBA Cup Final, with all starters healthy for each matchup. The Knicks went 2-1 against San Antonio, with both wins coming by 10+ points.

In their three meetings, the Knicks went 3-0 against the spread, while the over hit in two of the three games.

As far as the Game 1 spread goes, both the Knicks and Spurs have performed well to this point. New York is 55-42 against the spread this season, covering by +3.4 points on average with an +8.3 average winning margin. The Spurs went 58-41-2 against the spread at a +3.6 cover margin and +8.5 winning margin.

Looking at the Over/Under, both New York and San Antonio trended under this season, with the Spurs going 53-48, staying under, and the Knicks at 46-51.

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