Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Who Has the Best Knicks-Spurs Prices

Kalshi and Polymarket are offering different value on the NBA Finals after Game 1. | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

With the New York Knicks taking Game 1 of the NBA Finals over the San Antonio Spurs, the markets across all major prediction sites shifted in the Knicks' favor. However, there are still different value points to consider and compare for the best payout.

Kalshi’s NBA Finals market is favoring New York to win the series at 53% while the Spurs are trading at 47%. The NBA Finals market on Polymarket has the Knicks trading at 54% while the Spurs have 47% here as well.

San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks series prices

Kalshi

• New York Knicks 53% ($10 to win $8.53)
• San Antonio Spurs 47% ($10 to win $10.51)

Polymarket

• New York Knicks 54% ($10 to win $7.92)
• San Antonio Spurs 47% ($10 to win $11.12)

The payouts on both markets tell the story. Those wanting to back the Knicks winning the NBA Finals will get a slightly better payout at Kalshi than they would at Polymarket on the same $10 stake. As for taking the Spurs, the roles are reversed with Polymarket offering the better payout.

Shopping Game 2 lines

Moneyline

Kalshi

• San Antonio Spurs 66% ($10 to win $4.58)
• New York Knicks 34% ($10 to win $8.08)

Polymarket

• San Antonio Spurs 67% ($10 to win $4.78)
• New York Knicks 34% ($10 to win $8.83)

The margins on the moneyline between Kalshi and Polymarket are minimal on $10 risks, but could be more beneficial for those putting up larger stakes. Polymarket is offering a slightly higher payout than Kalshi for both the Spurs' and Knicks' chances of winning. 

Spread

Kalshi

• San Antonio Spurs -5.5 54% ($10 to win $7.92)
• New York Knicks +5.5 45% ($10 to win $10.51)

Polymarket

• San Antonio Spurs -6.5 50% ($10 to win $9.70)
• New York Knicks +6.5 51% ($10 to win $9.32)

The spread comes down to which team is being risked on, with Kalshi offering the spread at one less point than Polymarket. Those backing San Antonio to cover the spread can go with the 5.5 points on Kalshi, while those for the Knicks should take the larger number on Polymarket for them to cover.

Point total

Kalshi

• Over 214.5 52% ($10 to win $8.59)
• Under 214.5 50% ($10 to win $9.32)

Polymarket

• Over 215.5 49% ($10 to win $9.80)
• Under 215.5 52% ($10 to win $8.95)

Finals MVP line shop

Both Jalen Brunson and Victor Wembanyama went into the NBA Finals as the two favorites to win the MVP of the finals, with Wemby favored over Brunson. However, following the Knicks' win, Brunson took over the top of the board as the new favorite on Kalshi and Polymarket. Brunson and Wemby are the only two players with chances over 10% on both markets to win.

Kalshi

• Jalen Brunson 46% ($10 to win $10.51)
• Victor Wembanyama 44% ($10 to win $11.86)

Polymarket 

• Jalen Brunson 46.7% ($10 to win $11.07)
• Victor Wembanyama 46% ($10 to win $11.39)

Anyone backing Brunson to win the MVP is seeing a slightly higher payout on Polymarket than Kalshi, while those who think Wembanyama will win the MVP are gaining more value at Kalshi on the same $10 risk.

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