NFL MVP Kalshi Prediction Market For Every Player Ahead of Week 1

We are days away from Week 1 NFL kickoff and the NFL MVP market on Kalshi has major names listed from top to bottom. Josh Allen heads into the season as the preseason MVP favorite with 11% after winning the award last year.

Behind Allen are Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, the only other players priced at 10% or higher. Aside from the three, there are several names to watch throughout the board that could make their way up.

2026 NFL MVP winner - Kalshi

Josh Allen 11%
Joe Burrow 10%
Lamar Jackson 10%
Justin Herbert 9%
Patrick Mahomes 7%
Drake Maye 7%
Dak Prescott 7%
Caleb Williams 7%
Matthew Stafford 7%
Jordan Love 5%
Jayden Daniels 4%
Brock Purdy 4%
Trevor Lawrence 4%
Jalen Hurts 3%
Bo Nix 3%
Jared Goff 3%
Sam Darnold 3%
C.J. Stroud 2%
Baker Mayfield 2%
Kyler Murray 2%
Jaxson Dart 2%
Cam Ward 1%
Daniel Jones 1%
J.J. McCarthy 1%
Tua Tagovailoa 1%
Tyler Shough 1%
Jahmyr Gibbs 1%
Myles Garrett 1%
Bijan Robinson 1%
Saquon Barkley 1%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 1%
Christian McCaffrey 1%
Ashton Jeanty 1%
Josh Jacobs 1%
Ja’Marr Chase 1%
Justin Jefferson 1%
Puka Nacua 1%
A.J. Brown 1%
Micah Parsons 1%
Tie / co-winners 1%

Contenders

Right at the top, each of the nine players sitting with a 7% chance or higher should be considered a true contender to win. Of those nine, Patrick Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, and Matthew Stafford are all previous winners.

Joe Burrow, Drake Maye, Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert have each gained several MVP votes through the years.

Caleb Williams jumps in as a first-time contender, per Kalshim with his tremendous run through his first two seasons. Williams totaled 7,483 yards, 47 touchdowns, and just 13 interceptions through his first two seasons.

Sleepers

There are several names to keep an eye on, including Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, and Jaxson Dart, to name a few. Nix is coming off a career year, passing for 3,931 yards and 25 passing touchdowns and now gets an upgrade at receiver with Jaylen Waddle coming in.

Kyler Murray is an obvious candidate with his move to the Minnesota Vikings. Kevin O’Connell has a record of developing QBs, which Murray needs after his slump.

Jaxson Dart gets a new head coach in John Harbaugh, who has a history of producing MVP QBs, with Lamar Jackson a prime example of that.

While anyone on this list could be considered a sleeper, it’s worth noting that only 18 times in history has a non-QB won the MVP. The last time a non-QB won the MVP was in 2012 when Adrian Peterson won.

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