NFL MVP Market Movement: Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes Stock Up, Lamar Jackson Down

The race at the top of Kalshi’s NFL MVP market is heating up, with contenders heading in different directions in recent weeks. San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy sits at the top of the board with a 30% chance to win.

Over the last two weeks, Purdy has risen 9% from 19% to 30% to win the MVP. Other notable names that have moved in opposite directions at the top are Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.

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On the rise

Brock Purdy has seen the biggest rise on the MVP market this season, having jumped every other name to the top of the board. Through five weeks, Purdy has led the San Francisco 49ers to a 5-0 start. He’s totaled 1,196 passing yards and leads the league with 13 passing touchdowns and an 84.0 QBR with just two interceptions. The San Francisco 49ers are also the third-ranked offense in the league, averaging 30.8 points.

After tearing his ACL last season, Patrick Mahomes is back to his MVP form. The Kansas City Chiefs are also undefeated at 4-0 and coming out of a Week 5 bye. In four games, Mahomes has totaled 1,037 passing yards, nine passing touchdowns, and two interceptions. He's won two MVPs previously (2018, 2022) and finished top-10 in voting three separate times.

With the Chiefs ranking top-5 in scoring (29.5 ppg) and second in yards per game (412), Mahomes will continue remain at the top of the board until proven otherwise. Mahomes price is up 3% in the last two weeks.

Injury catching up with Lamar

Lamar Jackson is the biggest name sliding down. His dip stems from his ankle injury rather than his actual play. Jackson suffered an ankle injury in Week 4 against the Tennessee Titans, which forced him to miss the second half of that game as well as the Baltimore Ravens Week 5 win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Through the three and a half weeks that Jackson has played, he’s thrown for 967 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions. He’s also rushed for 144 yards and one touchdown.

With his injury playing a role, his price to win the MVP dropped 4% over the last two weeks.

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