NFL Playoff Prediction Market for Every Team: Rams Highest, Cardinals Lowest

It’s never too early to start looking at NFL teams' chances of making the playoffs, and what better time than a week before training camp opens? Kalshi’s lines already show the markets having clear stances on who’s in, who’s out, and who sits in the middle.

Leading all teams is the Los Angeles Rams, with an 81% chance, while the Arizona Cardinals have the lowest chance of making the postseason at 4%. Kalshi will settle the markets once the playoffs are decided. Teams with over a 50% chance offer a negative return, while those under 50% offer plus money.

The favorites

There are currently 11 teams on Kalshi’s NFL playoff market that they think highly of, with a 60% chance or stronger to make the playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams 81%
Buffalo Bills 78%
Baltimore Ravens 72%
Seattle Seahawks 69%
Kansas City Chiefs 68%
Los Angeles Chargers 65%
Detroit Lions 64%
Cincinnati Bengals 62%
New England Patriots 61%
Philadelphia Eagles 61%
San Francisco 49ers 60%

Each made major offseason moves to chase a playoff spot or even a Super Bowl. Two teams on this list could come into question in the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Both missed the playoffs after suffering major injuries. If they stay healthy, each has more than enough talent to make it this year.

Middle of the field

In the middle tier sit the teams that could still go either way, with many offering a positive return should they make it. These teams sit between 30% and 59%.

Houston Texans 58%
Denver Broncos 57%
Green Bay Packers 56%
Jacksonville Jaguars 52%
Dallas Cowboys 51%
Chicago Bears 50%
New Orleans Saints 40%
Minnesota Vikings 37%
Pittsburgh Steelers 37%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37%
Indianapolis Colts 36%
Washington Commanders 36%
Atlanta Falcons 32%
New York Giants 30%

At exactly 50%, the Chicago Bears are the team to watch. They made the playoffs for the first time in five seasons last year. Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze took huge leaps last season and were a top-10 offense in points and yards.

They were on track for a playoff berth with Daniel Jones at QB until he tore his Achilles in Week 14.

Far out

Kalshi gives these seven teams less than a 30% chance. Only the Panthers made the playoffs last season, in a weak AFC South division.

Carolina Panthers 29%
Las Vegas Raiders 23%
Tennessee Titans 22%
Cleveland Browns 17%
New York Jets 14%
Miami Dolphins 9%
Arizona Cardinals 4%

The Cardinals are in the worst position of any team. They were a bottom-10 offense and bottom-five defense last season and made little to no strides in the offseason, with the exception of drafting Jeremiyah Love with the third pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

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