NL MVP Race A Coin Flip at Kalshi Between Shohei Ohtani and Pete Crow-Armstrong

The race for the NL MVP between Shohei Ohtani and Pete Crow-Armstrong remains extremely close. Shohei Ohtani holds the advantage over Crow-Armstrong, however, we’ve already seen PCA take the lead once.

Kalshi’s NL MVP market currently leans on Ohtani at 52%, while Crow-Armstrong is just behind at 49%. The line has held steady for over a week, though Crow-Armstrong briefly took the lead before Ohtani reclaimed it. A $10 trade on Ohtani to win profits $8.59, while the same trade profits $8.94 for Crow-Armstrong.

NL MVP Winner - Kalshi

Shohei Ohtani 52%
Pete Crow-Armstrong 49%

Nearly identical

These are two of the top hitters in the National League, and their numbers speak for themselves, with both of them being extremely close. Ohtani holds the advantage across the board in his averages with a .295 average, .392 OBP, .556 SLG, and .948 OPS. PCA sits close behind within a .20 margin across the board.

Crow-Armstrong paces in hits (135), stolen bases (31), home runs (30), and runs (89). Aside from the stolen bases, Ohtani sits within 10 in each category.

Ohtani pulling ahead?

Pete Crow-Armstrong first started to cut into Ohtani’s lead in the NL MVP when Ohtani stopped pitching after July 3, when he suffered a knee injury and bicep discomfort that has kept him off the mound since.

Ohtani’s pitching had been elite with an 8-2 record and one of the strongest ERAs in the league at 1.79, 95 strikeouts, and a 0.95 WHIP through 85.2 innings pitched.

From the time Ohtani went down from the mound to now, his NL MVP price has come down from 89% since then, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has come up from 7% in that same time period.

Giving Ohtani the advantage right now is that he is set to return to pitching within the next month, as he’s already ramped up his bullpen sessions. Reports say he will make between 3 and 4 starts ahead of the postseason.

Both Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong have 12 regular-season series remaining until the playoffs to make their case.

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