Notre Dame Favored in College Football Championship Market on Kalshi

The luck of the Irish may be the theme of the 2026 college football season as Kalshi’s college football market favors Notre Dame to win the National Championship. Notre Dame leads the board at 13% to win the championship.

After sitting behind Oregon and Texas just over a month ago, Notre Dame took over the top spot on July 11th and has held on to the top spot since. A $25 trade on Notre Dame currently pays $156.23 if they win the title.

College Football National Championship - Kalshi

Notre Dame 13%
Ohio State 12%
Texas 12%
Oregon 11%
Georgia 10%

Luck of the Irish or easy schedule?

All signs and prediction markets hint at Notre Dame going undefeated in the 2026 season and on its way to the College Football Playoff. Analysts and fans alike are calling out the Irish schedule for being one of the weakest for a contending team.

Notre Dame plays eight opponents this season who finished under .500 record last year. In total, Notre Dame’s opponents in 2025 finished at a 47.7% win rate/ They only play four road games next season as well.

To the playoffs?

Similar to the markets pointing towards an undefeated season, Kalshi also hints at a deep run if they make the CFP. There are markets for Notre Dame to make the CFP and how far it will advance.

Notre Dame playoff prices - Kalshi

Make CFP: 86%
Make Quarterfinals: 65%
Make Semifinals: 50%
Make National Championship: 27%

High risk high reward

This is as high risk, high reward of a roster that Notre Dame will have. Outside of the proven talent from QB CJ Carr and last year's top receiver Jordan Faison, this is a brand new offense.

Rather than bringing in developed receivers, the Irish opted for freshman Quincy Porter and sophomore Mylan Graham from Ohio State. Both saw limited snaps in 2025 and were highly rated prospects out of high school.

The backfield is even more questionable than the receiving core. Notre Dame lost both Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price to the NFL and is rolling out junior running back Aneyas Williams, who has 58 carries for 443 yards in two years for the Irish.

Notre Dame opens its season in Week 1 with a neutral site game against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field.

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