Ohio State Disrespect? Texas Home Favorites Despite Buckeyes Recent Dominance

Arguably the biggest game of the season and a potential preview of the National Championship between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 3 Texas takes place this Saturday in Austin. Kalshi’s college football market gives the edge to the Longhorns here because Texas is at home.

Since the market for this massive matchup opened back in May, the prices have flipped back and forth 14 times before settling on Texas in early July. Texas now comes in with a 53% chance to win vs. Ohio State’s 47%. A $10 trade profits $7.92 on Texas and $10.51 on Ohio State.

Ohio State vs. Texas - Kalshi

Moneyline: Ohio State (47%) vs. Texas (53%)
Spread: Texas -2.5 (48%)
Total: 49.5 (Over 49%)

Headed for collision

Both teams come into this one off similar dominant performances against lesser opponents. Texas handled Texas State 59-7 while Ohio State won 56-3 against Ball State.

Both sides showed their talent. For Ohio State, Julian Sayin finished with 320 yards and three touchdowns, with Jeremiah Smith responsible for 151 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The run game was also efficient, with the Buckeyes' leading backs, Bo Jackson and Ja’Kobi Jackson, each finishing with 80+ yards and a touchdown on 9+ yards per carry.

For Texas, the highlight was Arch Manning and his distribution. Manning finished with 305 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception. 5-Star transfer receiver Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo were the highlight of the receiving core, combining for 190+ yards and three touchdowns. The backfield is also settling in as Hollywood Smothers finished with 70 yards, averaging seven yards per carry, while Raleek Brown asserted himself as the red zone back with two touchdowns from inside 20 yards.

Trends to watch

Looking back to last season when the two played in Columbus, Ohio State entered as a 1.5-point favorite and won 14-7. The Buckeyes also beat Texas in the 2024 College Football Playoffs.

Ohio State finished the season 3-2 against the spread against AP-ranked Top-25 opponents, averaging a +6-point winning margin, yet a -1.2 cover margin. Texas went 3-2-1 against the spread in similar situations, averaging a +2-point winning margin and +1.6 cover margin.

This is the ESPN College GameDay feature in Week 2, with a 7:30 p.m. EST kickoff time on ABC.

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