Pete Crow-Armstrong Overwhelming Shohei Ohtani in NL MVP Kalshi Market

Pete Crow-Armstrong is inching closer and closer to a lock to win the NL MVP on Kalshi’s MLB market. At the time of writing, Pete Crow-Armstrong has an 89% chance to win the NL MVP.

In just over a week, Crow-Armstrong’s price jumped over 30%, going from 57% to 89% in just days. A $10 trade on PCA winning the NL MVP profits just $1.14. Kalshi also listed a tie/co-winner contract at 2%.

MLB NL MVP winner - Kalshi

Pete Crow-Armstrong 89%
Shohei Ohtani 11%
Tie/Co-Winners 2%

The rise

Pete Crow-Armstrong came into the 2026 season as an afterthought on Kalshi with just a 1% chance to win until mid-June. His price began to rise as June went on, and he finished the month at 7%. By July 31, he had cemented his name as a true contender, sitting at 40%. August was his strongest rise on Kalshi, with nearly a 50% rise to where he sits now.

This season, Crow-Armstrong has a .283 average with 38 home runs (2nd in MLB) and 91 RBI (6th). August has been his best month by far, recording 14 home runs on 113 at-bats with 32 total hits, 28 total runs, and 28 RBI.

The spike in his price came in his last series against the Cincinnati Reds, where he recorded eight hits in 16 at-bats with five home runs, six total runs, eight hits, and eight RBI.

Although Crow-Armstrong has a tough stretch to finish the season against the Milwaukee Brewers twice, the Atlanta Braves, and the Boston Red Sox, he has another series against the Cincinnati Reds, who he just dominated.

Shohei Ohtani trending down?

Aside from PCA’s meteoric rise, Ohtani has also had an extremely quiet month with 26 hits in 108 at-bats with six home runs and 13 RBI. He’s also batting .241, which is less than his .280 for the season.

His cold streak has gone even colder over his last 10 games, with zero home runs recorded and just five hits. There is also no update on when Ohtani will return to pitching, which has held his price down even more.

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