Polymarket vs Kalshi NBA Championship Market: Differences, Similarities, Trends

The NBA preseason tips off on Saturday, October 3, which means preseason NBA Championship markets are up, and a few differences stand out between the top two prediction markets. The top of the board is mostly the same in terms of the order, with one difference between the favorites.

Kalshi’s NBA Finals market favors the Oklahoma City Thunder at 22%. On Polymarket’s NBA Championship market, the San Antonio Spurs sit at the top with 21%. A $10 trade profits $33.09 if the Thunder win on Kalshi and $36.49 if the Spurs win on Polymarket.

NBA Finals winner - Kalshi

Oklahoma City Thunder 22%
San Antonio Spurs 21%
Philadelphia 76ers 10%
New York Knicks 9%
Miami Heat 7%
Boston Celtics 5%
Minnesota Timberwolves 5%

NBA Finals winner - Polymarket

San Antonio Spurs 21%
Oklahoma City Thunder 20%
New York Knicks 13%
Philadelphia 76ers 11%
Minnesota Timberwolves 5%
Boston Celtics 5%
Miami Heat 3%

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In agreement at the top

Despite the 1% difference between the Thunder and Spurs trading prices on both prediction markets, both of them sit far ahead of the rest of the field. On Kalshi, they are the only two teams sitting above 10% to win the NBA Finals, while Polymarket has a 7% gap between them and the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers, who are above 10%.

Where things differ

Sticking with the 76ers and Knicks, both markets differ on where each of them stands. Kalshi has Philly with the third-highest price at 10%, while Polymarket lists it at 11%, but with the fourth-highest price.

For the reigning champions, the Knicks have a 9% price on Kalshi and the fourth-highest on the board. Polymarket has them at 13% with the third-highest price.

The biggest difference at the top comes between the Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, and Minnesota Timberwolves. Kalshi is bullish on the Heat at 7%, followed by the Celtics and Timberwolves at 5%. Both Boston and Minnesota have 5% on Polymarket as well, however, Miami sits behind them at 3%. Miami has the biggest difference in profit on a $10 trade with $124 on Kalshi and $303.20 on Polymarket.

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