Polymarket World Cup Odds: Portugal Surging Behind England

Yes, even at 41 years of age, Cristiano Ronaldo is still bringing hype to Portugal ahead of the World Cup, and prediction markets are leaning into that narrative as well, with their chances of winning surging over the last month.

The World Cup prediction markets on Polymarket currently have Portugal trading at 10%, which is the fourth-highest chance on the board, only behind France and Spain, who are co-favorites to win at 16%, as well as England, just ahead at 11%.

2026 World Cup Winner - Polymarket

France 16%
Spain 16%
England 11%
Portugal 10%
Argentina 9%
Brazil 8%

Portugal's 10% chance to win is marked as the fourth best on the board, with a $10 risk paying $100.3 if they come out on top.

Playing for Ronaldo

The headline heading into the 2026 World Cup is that this is going to be Ronaldo’s last go-around to try and add a World Cup title to his résumé before calling it a career. That said, the team has already backed playing for him in hopes of winning him his first WC title.

Portugal midfielder Vitinha spoke out in support of this in an interview with FIFA, saying he’s learned from him and will play for him in the World Cup.

“It’s fantastic. He’s one of the greatest players in history. I’m very proud to share the dressing room with him, learn from him, and witness his professionalism every day. I hope we can win the World Cup with him and for him as well.”

Midfield depth making the difference

Portugal’s World Cup squad has one of the deepest midfields of any roster going into the tournament. It’s made up of Vitinha, João Neves, Bruno Fernandes, and Bernardo Silva.

Combined, the four of them offer a balanced attack with 17 total goals scored and 33 assists. Bruno Fernandes paces the group, having been responsible for 30 total goals for Manchester United this season with nine goals and 21 assists.

How the market moved

Portugal bottomed at a 6.7% chance to win the World Cup in early April and has been on an upward trend since. By the end of April, they were already pushing 8% and haven't dropped below 7.5% since. All of May was a similar route, having peaked at 10.4% before settling back to the 10% mark.

Portugal World Cup history

Portugal has made eight previous World Cup appearances. Six of those have come since 2002. All-time, they’ve gone 16-6-12, scoring 61 goals and allowing 41. The furthest they’ve gone was third place in their first year qualifying back in 1966.

From 2002 to 2022, they’ve been knocked out in the group stage twice (2002, 2014), the round of 16 twice (2010, 2018), in the quarterfinals once (2022), and claimed fourth place in 2006.

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