Scottie Scheffler Sizeable Favorite at Kalshi for BMW Championship

Scottie Scheffler tops the board ahead of the BMW Championship with Kalshi’s PGA market heavily leaning his way by nearly a 20% margin over the rest of the field. Scheffler goes into the BMW Championship riding his best streak of starts for the 2026 season.

Scheffler sits with a 23% price to win the BMW Championship. Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Ludvig Aberg directly follow and sit in the 5% range. A $10 trade on Scheffler to win the BMW Championship profits $31.21.

BMW Championship winner - Kalshi

Scottie Scheffler 23%
Xander Schauffele 5.4%
Rory McIlroy 5.3%
Ludvig Aberg 5%
Cameron Young 4.4%

Can anyone catch Scottie?

In reality, yes, but it’ll be tough considering Scheffler is rolling right now and playing through his best stretch of the season over his last eight starts. From the CJ Cup Byron Nelson to now, Scheffler has notched a top-5 finish six times, including his most recent win at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week.

Scottie Scheffler's recent finishes

CJ Cup Byron Nelson: 3rd (-25)
Memorial Tournament: T12 (-4)
U.S. Open: T4 (E)
Travelers Championship: P2 (-21)
Genesis Scottish Open: Missed Cut (E)
Open Championship: T4 (-7)
3M Open: 2nd (-22)
FedEx St. Jude Championship: 1st (-17)

His -25 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, -21 at the Travelers Championship, and -22 at the 3M Open are his top-3 performances in 2026.

Historically, Scheffler does well at the BMW Championship. He’s competed in every tournament since 2020, with five of the six being top-25 finishes, including three in the top-3 and a win last year after rallying from a 4-shot deficit for his fifth win of the year.

This year, Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri, hosts the BMW Championship, the first time the PGA Tour has played this course since 2018. Scheffler has never played here.

Of the top-5 strongest prices on the board, Rory McIlroy is the only one who has played the course back in 2018, when he finished T50 at the PGA Championship.

The 2026 BMW Championship tees off on Thursday, August 20th and runs until Sunday, August 23rd.

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock up to a $500 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $25 in trades.

Trading is risky, always trade responsibly. If your activity is becoming a problem, support is available by calling 1-800-522-4700.

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