Shohei Ohtani to Pitch Market on Kalshi Trends Down

Shohei Ohtani’s dual-threat ability as both a hitter and pitcher is in jeopardy of missing the rest of the regular season. Kalshi’s MLB market updated its price on whether he’ll pitch again this season. His price is trending down.

Ohtani sits with a 76% chance to pitch again this season, a 14% drop in less than 24 hours. The major price drop comes following a recent report that there is no timeline for his return to the mound.

Shohei to Pitch Again in the 2026 Regular Season - Kalshi

Yes 76%
No 80%

The market settles on whether Ohtani pitches before September 28. A $10 trade on him returns $2.93 in profit, while the same trade profits $2.23 if he doesn’t.

No timetable for his return

Shohei Ohtani hasn’t pitched in a game since July 3 due to a lingering injury in his left knee and right bicep. While he hasn’t pitched since then, he ramped up his training on the mound with a 20-pitch bullpen session last week before the Los Angeles Dodgers ruled him out of the Detroit series.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts spoke on Ohtani following his bullpen session and offered his thoughts on the injury.

"I think physically he's in a good spot," Roberts said. "I haven't heard otherwise as far as him ailing, whether it's the arm, the knee. Everything that he's told me and the training staff, he feels good."

Roberts understands Ohtani’s value and does not want to put him out there if he’s not 100%, saying that there is no timeline for his return to pitching.

"I certainly know the value of him pitching, but if you're not 100%, there's possibly some bleed-in to the performance offensively," Roberts said. "Any inning that he gives us is added value. The cost is, does it affect his health? So there's really no timeline, definitive deadline to say, 'Hey, this is where we're going to stop.'”

Roberts also confirmed several other reports that Ohtani could be shut down from pitching for the rest of the season.

Across 14 starts, Ohtani went 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA. The MLB playoffs begin on Tuesday, September 29. We should have a better idea on Ohtani’s pitching status by then.

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