Surge Alert: Spurs Spike on Kalshi, But Knicks Still Big Favorite

Game 3 of the NBA Finals saw yet another thriller between the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks, with the Spurs picking up their first win of the series and ending the Knicks 13-game playoff win streak.

Following San Antonio’s win, Kalshi’s NBA Finals market saw a massive surge in the Spurs chances to win the series. However, New York is still a sizeable favorite overall with a 2-1 series lead as it heads into Game 4.

NBA Finals Series Winner: New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs - Kalshi

New York Knicks 63%
San Antonio Spurs 37%

A 63% chance for the Knicks to win the finals means that they are still a sizable favorite to take down San Antonio, though the Knicks were at 79% after winning the first two in San Antonio. At their current trading price, $10 pays out $5.46 if they win. The Spurs 37% chance pays out $15.21, also at a $10 risk, if they win the title.

How Game 3 unfolded

The Spurs got off to another hot start, but the Knicks stormed back and took a 62-57 halftime lead. It was back-and-forth from there before the Spurs pulled away in the fourth thanks, in part, to a massive free-throw differential.

Series price movement

Following the Knicks' 2-0 start to the finals, they were listed at a massive 79% chance to win and had a strong 33% to sweep the series. While that isn't possible now that San Antonio stole a game in New York, the Knicks remain favored to win the series, with their price coming down to 63%.

Heading into Game 4, New York remains favored to win on its home court with a 54% moneyline and 1.5-point on the spread with a 52% chance to cover that margin. The point total is trading at 216.5 with 50% on both the over and under.

Game 4: San Antonio Spurs Vs. New York Knicks

Moneyline: New York Knicks (54%) vs. San Antonio Spurs (46%)
Spread: Knicks -1.5 (52%)
Total: 216.5

Lines are also up for Game 5 back in San Antonio, where the Spurs are sitting with a 63% chance to win their first game at home in the series.

Finals MVP movement

NBA Finals MVP Winner - Kalshi

Jalen Brunson 48%
Victor Wembanyama 37%
Karl-Anthony Towns 14%

As the Knicks remain favored to win the series, Jalen Brunson still finds himself at the top of the board to win the NBA Finals MVP, trading at 48% to Victor Wembanyama’s 37%.

Brunson’s 48% are not far off from where his chances were after the first two games. Wemby, though has seen a rollercoaster ride in this market, having gone into the series at 63% before taking a nosedive to 18%. After picking up their first win, though, he’s added 20% to his chance to win the MVP of the series.

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $10 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.

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