Tarik Skubal Trade Market Makes Dramatic Turn on Kalshi

After pulling his name out of trade contention, Kalshi now shows a 60% chance that Skubal will be traded by the August 3 MLB trade deadline. Skubal now sits with the second-highest price to be traded by the deadline.

Kalshi’s MLB trade market currently has Skubal priced at 60%. Trading $10 on him being moved profits $6.47. Kalshi settles the market on August 5 based on whether he is traded.

Will Tarik Skubal be traded?

Yes 60%
No 49%

Major price movement

In under one month, Skubal’s trade price has jumped over and dipped under 50% a total of 13 times. Starting on July 12, he peaked at 71% to be traded. Just nine days later, he reached his lowest price of 25% on July 21 before jumping up to 37% that same day and eventually over 50%, which is where he sits now.

Where things sit now

Strong reports say the Detroit Tigers are fielding offers for Tarik Skubal. Per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon, "the Tigers are at least mulling the possibility of securing a package for Skubal that potentially would keep them strong in the present while making them stronger for the future."

After the two insiders spoke with executives around the league, they believe the trade package would include a starting pitcher to replace Skubal in the rotation, as well as young prospects.

Detroit is smart to field offers while staying competitive. Since June 29, the Tigers are 13-5, which includes a 4-2 record to start the second half of the year.

Keeping Skubal past the deadline would help their wild-card push, but he is on an expiring contract with no extension guarantees on either end. Especially if they miss the postseason. He has expressed his desire to stay with the team foer the remainder of the season, but has not spoken on any long term commitment.

The Tigers are 3.5 games out of the sixth spot in the American League with upcoming games against the Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles, and the Athletics. All sub-.500 teams before the deadline.

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