U.S. Open Kalshi Market: Scottie Scheffler Leads Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm

Scottie Scheffler enters the U.S. Open with a career Grand Slam on the line. Prediction markets give him a strong shot at becoming the seventh player in history to complete it. Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm are within striking distance.

2026 U.S. Open Winner - Kalshi

Scottie Scheffler 14%
Rory McIlroy 7.2%
Jon Rahm 5.4%

As the 14% favorite on Kalshi’s U.S. Open market, Scheffler is offering $57.35 in profit at a $10 stake with a win. The same $10 risk returns $120.41 on McIlroy and $163.51 on Rahm.

Scottie heating up at the right time

Scottie Scheffler ranks world No. 1 for a reason, and it’s for times like this. He’s been hot since early April, finishing second at the Masters, RBC Heritage, and Cadillac Championship, third at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, a T14 finish at the PGA Championship, and T12 at the Memorial Tournament.

With a win here, Scheffler would join Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, and Rory McIlroy as the seventh player to complete a career Grand Slam.

He holds a PGA Championship and Open Championship in 2025, and two Masters wins in 2022 and 2024.

Rory & Rahm’s case

Rory McIlroy poses the biggest threat to Scheffler’s Grand Slam bid. McIlroy, a Grand Slam winner himself, has three top-10 finishes in 2026, including his second straight win at the Masters, and a T7 finish at the PGA Championship.

Historically, Rory has performed well at the U.S. Open, dating back to his 2011 victory and nine top-10 finishes, of which six have come in his last seven tournament appearances.

Jon Rahm dominates LIV Golf, leading the standings with 928.58 points. He’s placed top-20 in all nine of his LIV tournaments, including two wins and four second-place finishes. Most recently, he finished second in Andalucia.

Rahm came one T2 finish away at the 2026 PGA Championship from contending for his own career Grand Slam. He has won the Masters and U.S. Open, previously.

Market moves in favor of Scheffler

Kalshi’s market moved toward Scheffler leading up to the U.S. Open. He’s remained above 14% for the last two weeks while both McIlroy and Rahm have negative shifts.

Rory traded near 10% towards the end of May, dropping nearly 3% ahead of this weekend's tournament. Rahm saw a similar shift with his previous 7% trading price. Nearly a 2% drop.

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $10 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.

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