UNC Trending Up in College Baseball World Series Prediction Market

Following an extremely chaotic opening weekend of the College Baseball World Series that saw six of the top-15 teams get eliminated, the North Carolina Tar Heels are seen as one of the biggest beneficiaries on prediction markets.

On Kalshi, following the eliminations of No. 1 UCLA, No. 2 Georgia Tech, No. 8 Florida, No. 9 Southern Miss, No. 10 Florida State, and No. 12 Texas A&M in the Regionals, North Carolina is now the favorite to win the College World Series at 21%.

2026 College World Series Prediction Market - Kalshi

North Carolina 21%
Texas 18%
Georgia 16%
Auburn 12%
Mississippi State 10%
West Virginia 10%
Alabama 6%
USC 5%
Kansas 4%
Ole Miss 4%
Oklahoma 4%
Oregon 4%
Troy 2%
Little Rock <1%
Cal Poly <1%
St. John’s <1%

No. 5 North Carolina is favored at 21% ($10 to win $35.09). Only three other teams sit with above a 10% chance to win the College World Series in No. 6 Texas with 18% ($10 to win $42.50), No. 3 Georgia at 16% ($10 to win $45.58), and No. 4 Auburn at 12% ($10 to win $75.54). These are also the top four ranked teams that remain in the field.

How we got here

Each of North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia ran through as regional hosts, going 3-0. North Carolina posted 24 total runs and allowed just eight, including a shutout 8-0 win over VCU to get things going.

Texas scored the most runs of the three at 41 while allowing just six. They did get a favorable draw in their opening game of the weekend against Holy Cross, who went 25-30 on the season and allowed the Longhorns to run up 19 runs.

Georgia recorded a 30-5 run-to-runs-allowed ratio, beating Long Island once and Liberty twice. The bulk of their 30 runs, though, came against LIU, where they scored 18. In both games against Liberty, they scored six runs both times.

Auburn took a different route after suffering an upset loss to Milwaukee in their opening game before winning their next four to advance to the Super Regionals.

How the market moved following the Regionals

Since May 31st, when North Carolina advanced out of the Chapel Hill Regional, they climbed from 9% to 21%. In that same time frame, following their win, Texas jumped from 17% to 18% while Georgia took a slight dip from 23% down to 16%.

Auburn had as low as a 1% chance to win on May 31st before their final regional game against Milwaukee. Following the game, they jumped to 13% before dropping to 12% at the time of writing.

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