US Open Women's Tennis Kalshi Market: Can a U.S. Player Win the Tournament?

The Women’s U.S. Open is down to the semifinals, with Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina, and Jessica Pegula making up the field. Kalshi’s U.S. Open tennis market has Sabalenka at the top of the board with 38%.

Gauff and Pegula are the last Americans in the field with a chance to capture a U.S. Open title on their home turf. Gauff has a 25% chance while Pegula has 13%, the lowest on the board. A $10 trade on Gauff winning profits $28, and $62.46 on Pegula.

Women’s U.S. Open winner - Kalshi

Aryna Sabalenka 38%
Coco Gauff 25%
Elena Rybakina 25%
Jessica Pegula 13%

Can Gauff or Pegula bring it home?

In reality, yes, hard courts suit both players. Looking at Pegula, she has a 225-98 (70%) record playing on hard court surfaces. Hard courts are her best surface, and her 28-9 U.S. Open record shows it. At the US Open, specifically, she’s advanced to the quarterfinals or further in four of the last five tournaments.

As for Gauff, she has a 72% win rate on hard courts for a 187-74 career record. In 2026, her hard court record is 25-6 and includes the Cincinnati Open that she won, and at least quarterfinal apperances at the Australian Open, Miami Open, and Dubai Open.

Each has looked dominant thus far in the tournament. Gauff advanced with straight sets in the first four rounds and lost the first set of the quarterfinals before winning the next two in a nail bitter. Pegula won straight sets in the first, second, and fourth rounds and lost the opening set of the third and quarterfinal before advancing.

What’s next?

In the semifinal, Pegula gets her second match of the year against No. 1-ranked Aryna Sabalenka, who she defeated at the Berlin Open. Gauff gets Elena Rybakina, who she lost to at the National Bank Open. Both Americans are underdogs going in.

Sabalenka vs. Pegula

Aryna Sabalenka 65%
Jessica Pegula 36%

Gauff vs. Rybakina

Elena Rybakina 52%
Coco Gauff 48%

The semifinals start Thursday, September 10. Pegula vs. Sabalenka begins at 7 p.m. EST, while Gauff vs. Rybakina is at 8:30 p.m.

Use the Kalshi promo code SI35 when you sign up to unlock an exclusive $35 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $25 in trades.

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