When Will Fernando Mendoza Start for the Raiders? Kalshi Prediction Market is Unsure

The Las Vegas Raiders drafted Fernando Mendoza first overall in 2026, but he is not set to start the season as QB1. Instead, he’ll start on the bench behind Kirk Cousins. With that, Kalshi’s NFL market is unsure on if and when he’ll make his regular-season debut.

Kalshi’s market offers selections on which weeks Mendoza will make his first start, with some selections coming in two-week ranges. 30% is the highest price on the board for a Week 3 start. A $10 trade on a Week 3 start profits $31.76.

When will Fernando Mendoza start his first NFL game? - Kalshi

Week 1/Week 2 16%
Week 3 30%
Week 4 29%
Week 5 29%
Week 6 29%
Week 7/Week 8 29%
Week 9/Week 10 29%
Week 11 through Week 14 29%
Week 15 through Week 18 29%
Does not start in regular season 11%

Continue to learn behind Cousins

The market’s uncertainty comes following Mendoza’s rough preseason. He got off to a hot start in the first preseason game, completing 10/16 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown. His final two preseason games saw a steep decline, with less than a 55% completion rate in both games, no touchdowns, and an interception in each, including one pick-six.

He finished his preseason totaling 240 yards on 25/45 passing (55.6%), one touchdown, two interceptions, and four sacks.

Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak spoke on Mendoza’s development and the importance of continuing to learn from his staff.

“Plenty of time on the field between drills with [QBs] coach [Mike] Sullivan and [offensive coordinator] coach [Andrew] Janocko. Every player that is not starting the first game, that is helping us on the look team, we’re just trying to find every edge we can find to continue to get him better and his teammates better.”

Mendoza breaks the streak

Fernando Mendoza will be the first QB selected first overall not to start in Week 1 since 2018, when Baker Mayfield started his rookie season on the bench. Six other QBs taken first overall from 2019 through 2025 all started Week 1.

Mendoza could follow in Baker’s footsteps, though. Baker started on the bench in Week 3 for the Cleveland Browns before then-starter Tyrod Taylor was injured. Mayfield came in and led the Browns to a comeback win. Days later, Cleveland named him the starter.

In Mendoza’s case, any opportunity he gets to see the field in the regular season could be capitalized on. There is also the chance that Kirk Cousins is benched with how he’s played over the last two seasons: 28 touchdowns and 21 interceptions to show for.

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