When Will Matthew Stafford Retire? Kalshi Prediction Market Expects Reigning MVP to Play Multiple Seasons

The Los Angeles Rams have at least two more seasons with Matthew Stafford, according to Kalshi’s NFL retirement market. Kalshi gives Stafford an 82% chance of retiring before the 2028-29 season, after two more years with the Rams.

When the market opened, Kalshi priced a 35% chance that Stafford would retire before 2028. The price has since moved to 82%.

When will Matthew Stafford retire? - Kalshi

Before 2026-27 season 2%
Before 2027-28 season 16%
Before 2028-29 season 82%
Before 2029-30 season 72%

Kalshi settles the market based on which season Stafford announces his retirement. A $10 trade on Stafford announcing it before the 2028-29 season profits $2.03.

Taking it year by year

Ahead of the 2026 season, Stafford signed a one-year, $55 million contract with the Rams, which would keep him there for the next two seasons. ESPN’s Dan Graziano said he expects Stafford to play out the deal after the Rams’ offseason additions.

"The Rams have the awesome season everyone is expecting of them after the splashy acquisition of Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and the looming possible addition of Aaron Donald," Graziano wrote. "Maybe they win the Super Bowl, maybe they fall just short. But either way, Stafford gets to the end of the season feeling fine and decides to play again in 2027."

Stafford has said he will decide year to year after each season. He spoke on it back in June on Chris Long’s Green Light podcast.

“It is year-to-year because I think it's fair to the team, I think it's fair to me, my family — I don't want to sit there and say, OK, 24 months from now, I've got to be ready to play another football season,” Stafford told Long. “I know that I'm ready to play this year. And hopefully, I feel great at the end of next year, and I'm ready to play another one after that. And then maybe we just kind of keep going like that. But committing to more than that feels a little bit daunting. And I think a little bit unfair to the team and myself.”

Preparing for post-Stafford

While Stafford remains the QB for at least two seasons, that has not stopped the Rams from preparing for life after he retires. Los Angeles drafted Stetson Bennett in the fourth round in 2023 and Ty Simpson in the first round in 2026. Both are competing for the Rams’ QB2 job this season.

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