Monaco Grand Prix Could Be F1’s 2026 Turning Point—or an Early Coronation

Kimi Antonelli’s dominant start to the season could get even sweeter at the sport’s most iconic race, but there’s precedent for this weekend to be a challenge.

Kimi Antonelli leads the F1 championship by 43 points entering the Monaco Grand Prix—the largest advantage since the modern points-scoring system was introduced in 2010. | Bradley Collyer/PA Images via Getty Images

The lasting image from Formula One’s Canadian Grand Prix was Mercedes driver George Russell standing alone behind the track barriers and outside of his car after an engine failure crushed his hopes of punching back in the championship fight against his teammate Kimi Antonelli. The 28-year-old’s disappointment was palpable after yet another instance of bad luck pushed his title dreams further out of reach.

But there was no time to sulk. Two weeks later, Russell arrives at the Monaco Grand Prix for one of the most consequential races of his career—one that could serve as a turning point for the rest of the season or further solidify Antonelli’s chances of making history as the youngest F1 champion ever. And Russell is doing his best to keep himself in the fight mentally.

“I’ve nothing to lose. I’m just going to go out and enjoy every race. It’s still in my control. If you pole and win every single race from now until the end of the season, you'll win the championship,” Russell said Thursday in Monaco. “That is my goal. Of course, it was frustrating in Canada but that's part of racing. It can’t always be sunshine and glory.”

While Russell may now fully get to assume the role of chaser, he does have plenty to lose. 2026 was supposed to be his crowning moment as the senior driver at Mercedes, now finally with a car underneath him capable of consistently winning races for the first time in his five seasons with the team. And yet he finds himself 43 points behind Antonelli through five races—a deficit that spells trouble, even this early in the season.

What History Tells Us About Catching Kimi Antonelli

Antonelli has rewritten the record books across the first five race weekends in 2026. He’s the youngest driver to win three races in a row, and the first ever to convert their first three pole positions into Grand Prix victories. 

But not only has he etched his name among the likes of Michael Schumacher and Ayrton Senna, the 19-year-old has also just dominated the top competition of his era. Names like Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen are well off the pace, albeit in clearly slower cars at this stage of the season. Reigning world champion Lando Norris hasn’t challenged Antonelli outside of besting him in the Miami sprint race. And most importantly, Antonelli has cleared his far-more-experienced teammate, through some fortuitous moments (a well-timed safety car in Japan and Russell’s engine failure in Canada) and flat-out better driving (Miami).

The result is a 43-point lead, the largest such advantage through five races since the modern-point scoring system (25 points for a win) was introduced in 2010. It’s important to note that there’s also just more opportunities to score points in 2026 with sprint races in three of the first five race weekends this year, but only two drivers in the past decade have led by more than 30 points at the same stage (Hamilton in ‘21 and Nico Rosberg in ‘16).

So what does such a massive early lead in the standing tell us? The driver that’s led through the first five races in the past decade has won in eight of the 10 seasons. That said, one of the two instances where that wasn’t the case just happened in 2025, when Oscar Piastri led by 10 points through Saudi Arabia, an advantage he eventually extended to as many as 34 points, before finishing third in the final standings behind Norris and Verstappen. The only other instance was in ‘22 when Charles Leclerc led by 19 points going into the sixth race and immediately relinquished first place in the standings to Verstappen—the clear favorite who recorded two DNFs in the first three races before winning five of the next six.

Year	Leader Through 5 Races	Points Led By	Final Result
2026	Kimi Antonelli	43	TBD
2025	Oscar Piastri	10	3rd
2024	Max Verstappen	25	1st
2023	Max Verstappen	14	1st
2022	Charles Leclerc	19	2nd
2021	Max Verstappen	4	1st
2020	Lewis Hamilton	30	1st
2019	Lewis Hamilton	7	1st
2018	Lewis Hamilton	15	1st
2017	Sebastian Vettel	6	1st
2016	Nico Rosberg	39	1st

Yes, there’s more opportunity to score points in F1 today, but there just isn’t much precedent for overthrowing the early-season championship leaders. That said, Monaco presents a unique challenge, one that could very well see the rest of the field close the gap on the Mercedes teenager.

Why Monaco Is the Race to Throw Off the 19-Year-Old

If there is a race that could finally throw Antonelli off the top step of the podium, F1’s crown jewel seems the most likely option. 

That’s for a number of reasons. First, Antonelli’s track record in Monaco is both limited (to be expected given this is just his second year in F1) and rather dismal. He qualified in 15th in 2025 after crashing at the end of Q1 and finished the race in 18th—last among cars that were still running and his worst result of the year other than his four race retirements. 

The previous year in F2, Antonelli qualified and finished in seventh in Monaco, which could mean that 2025 was simply a mistake, but both results highlight a truth about one of the oldest races still on the F1 calendar. It’s extremely difficult to overtake around the tight corners of the Monte Carlo circuit, making starting position absolutely crucial. That reality has led to many questions about whether or not Monaco should be on the calendar in the modern age of racing with Sunday’s race looking more like a parade and Saturday’s qualifying serving as the main event.

That should somewhat neutralize the Mercedes duo, who have seemingly lost some of their advantage in qualifying over the course of the season. Antonelli and Russell are still the favorites entering the weekend, but the door is open should either one slip up on Saturday. 

And yet Antonelli in particular remains unfazed and sounds ready to stay aggressive in Monaco, even with the tight turns and sizable championship lead. 

Antonelli and Mercedes teammate George Russell nearly collided on multiple occasions at the Canadian Grand Prix two weekends ago. | Bradley Collyer/PA Images via Getty Images

“I’m not the kind of guy who backs down,” Antonelli said Thursday in Monaco. “Whenever I get an opportunity, I will go for it. I think in Canada, it was a really good battle with George, but it also showed that no matter the position I am in the championship, I’m going to go for it.

“There will be times when I will probably need to think a bit more about how I go racing, and probably on some occasions I will have to be satisfied with the position I have, but at the moment I’m just going for it.”

Is Anyone Other Than Antonelli or Russell Prepared to Step Up?

All eyes will be on the two Mercedes drivers, and for good reason given how dominant the car has been in the early going. But there’s a groundswell of support for Ferrari that’s built over the last few weeks, suggesting that Leclerc and Hamilton could have a real chance to take the checkered flag on Sunday. Norris, who won this race in 2025 in what proved to be a hugely consequential result in his own teammate championship battle with Piastri, also figures to be a factor despite a down weekend in Montreal. 

Hamilton tried to downplay his and the team’s chances Thursday, saying he isn’t listening to “any of the hype.” But it’s hard to overlook a seven-time world champion that’s won this race three times or Leclerc, racing in his hometown after having just announced another contract extension with Ferrari earlier this week. Both drivers have been a step off the pace in qualifying compared to Antonelli so far this season, but experience in a place like Monaco gives them a clear leg up. 

The issue thus far is that F1’s teenage phenom hasn’t let the pressure get to him. And going into perhaps the most pressure-filled race weekend of his career, he’s keeping his focus on what’s right in front of him. 

“I’m not thinking about the championship or anything like that,” Antonelli said Thursday, reiterating a common refrain he’d said since seizing control of the title race in Miami. “I just think about enjoying the driving as much as I can and try to do my best, try to improve, raise the bar and we’ll see where we end up. I really want to enjoy every weekend as much as possible. I want to leave the weekend and say I did everything I could, so that’s what I’m going to do.”

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