Middlesbrough, Brighton vie for Premier League promotion

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This is the playoff before the playoff. The Championship decider to determine which club joins Burnley as the second side to win automatic promotion takes place Saturday as host Middlesbrough (in second) takes on Brighton (third) with the winner earning a spot in the Premier League.

The advantage is with Middlesbrough, known as Boro, because it is at home and only needs a draw. It has only lost twice at home all season, to Bristol City (Matchday 4) and Nottingham Forest (Matchday 28). Boro has also spent more money than anyone else in the league: in January it signed striker Jordan Rhodes for £11 million, a fee that would make some top-flight clubs blush, and its rivals have not been slow to point out Boro’s bigger budget (in terms of transfers and salaries).

Both teams have had chances to seize the initiative and fallen short; last week, Boro drew 2-2 at Birmingham, and Brighton, playing two days later and needing a home win over Derby to leapfrog into second place (making a draw against Boro enough), faltered, drawing 1-1 and losing key defender Lewis Dunk to a red card. He will miss the Boro game and the first leg of the four-team playoffs, if his side is there.

PODCAST: Just how badly did we misjudge Leicester?

And that is why this game is so important. The side that ends up third has no guarantee of making it through the playoff system: when, over two games, the third-place finisher plays sixth-place finisher and fourth plays fifth before each winner faces off in a winner-takes-all final at Wembley Stadium at the end of the month.

MORE: Eight years ago, Leicester was relegated–to the third tier

The winner will net a guaranteed £170 million payout, over three years, for reaching the Premier League. The other side does at least have statistics on its side: in 29 years, the third-placed side has gone through 11 times (38%). Of the 18 who missed out, six were then promoted the following year.

Leicester's title the unlikeliest success story in English history

Boro has been through this before. Last season it was top of the league with a month to play, dropped to fourth and lost the final to Norwich–which had finished third–3-0. Coach Aitor Karanka appeared to have cracked under the high expectations in March, reportedly threatening to resign after walking out of a team meeting. He was talked back into the job but a second season of disappointment will surely end with his departure.

There is more stability at Brighton, which was fighting off relegation into League One 18 months ago and has been a surprise promotion candidate under coach Chris Hughton, perhaps the polar opposite of the volatile Karanka. Hughton steered the side to safety last season, but you can’t quite compare what he’s done to Leicester: the team won just one of its last 11 games, so there was no clue that it would start this campaign so well, going unbeaten for a club-record first 21 games.

MORE: Burnley secures promotion | Is 5,000-to-1 to win EPL; Sound familiar?

While Boro broke the bank on Rhodes, Brighton signed winger Anthony Knockaert for an undisclosed fee and Jiri Skalak, a little-known Czech winger from Mlada Boleslav, who have both played an important role since joining. Knockaert was awarded Player of the Month award for April.

“It’s not necessarily about what is spent,” Hughton said. “It’s about how you use what you have and getting the best out of the team and doing the best you can.”

Both sides are currently 14 points ahead of sixth-placed Sheffield Wednesday, who is also in the playoff. In all but one of the last 29 seasons, Brighton and Boro’s point total of 88 points would be enough for automatic promotion. The exception was Sunderland, which reached the playoff final in 1998 and lost a heart-breaking penalty shootout 7-6 to Charlton Athletic.

GALLERY: Leicester's remarkable 2015-16 title season

Leicester City's Top Moments of 2015-16

The first points; Aug. 8, 2015

In what turned out to be a sign of things to come, Jamie Vardy scored the club's first goal 11 minutes into the season and Riyad Mahrez scored two of his own to give Leicester a 3-0 lead 25 minutes into a 4-2 win over Sunderland at King Power Stadium.

Immediate response vs. Spurs; Aug. 22, 2015

Riyad Mahrez answered Dele Alli's 81st-minute goal a minute later, and even though Leicester suffered its first non-win of the campaign in the 1-1 home draw against Tottenham, it showed a promising resiliency against a club it would be fending off down the stretch.

Comeback vs. Villa; Sept. 13, 2015

Facing a 2-0 deficit at home to lowly Aston Villa, Leicester mounted a furious comeback, with Ritchie De Laet, Riyad Mahrez and Nathan Dyer scoring in the 72nd, 82nd and 89th minutes, respectively, to steal three points in dramatic fashion.

Another 2-0 comeback; Sept. 19, 2015

Again down 2-0, Leicester rescued another point from a losing position at Stoke City. The Potters raced out to their lead within 20 minutes, but Riyad Mahrez's penalty and Jamie Vardy's 69th-minute equalizer salvaged the point.

Vardy rescues a point; Oct. 17, 2015

Leicester found itself down 2-0 to Southampton (sensing a theme here?) but roared back late. Jamie Vardy scored twice, once in the 66th minute and the dramatic equalizer a minute into stoppage time, earning the Foxes another point from a losing position.

Clean-sheet pizza; Oct. 24, 2015

It took 10 games and a promise of a pizza party from manager Claudio Ranieri for Leicester to keep a clean sheet, but the Foxes did just that in a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace. The pizza promise became an instant part of Leicester lore, and the club went on to keep 14 more clean sheets–including six in seven games down the stretch.

Vardy's scoring record; Nov. 28, 2015

Jamie Vardy set a Premier League record scoring in his 11th straight game in a 1-1 draw vs. Manchester United. Ruud van Nistelrooy previously held the mark.

Sweet revenge for Ranieri; Dec. 14, 2015

With manager Claudio Ranieri facing Chelsea–the team that ushered him out in 2004–and squaring off against Jose Mourinho–the man who replaced him–Leicester wound up with the bragging rights and three points. Jamie Vardy scored off a perfect Riyad Mahrez pass, Mahrez added a gorgeous goal of his own, Leicester won 2-1 and Mourinho was promptly fired.

Schmeichel saves a point; Dec. 29, 2015

On the heels of a Boxing Day loss to Liverpool, Leicester proved its title chops by holding contender Manchester City to a 0-0 draw. Kasper Schmeichel made a pair of key first-half saves, and Leicester bounced back three days after the setback to secure a meaningful point.

Huth's header beats Spurs; Jan. 13, 2016

Defender Robert Huth's perfect 83rd-minute header from Christian Fuchs's corner–his first goal since last April–gave Leicester a 1-0 win over Tottenham at White Hart Lane, snapping a three-game winless run. Given how the title race would come down to the two clubs, the point swing has proven to be massive.

Vardy's wonder-volley vs. Liverpool; Feb. 2, 2016

Jamie Vardy scored twice in a February win over Liverpool, but it was his first goal that had the world talking. After running down a long ball from Riyad Mahrez, Vardy unleashed a 25-yard volley off the bounce to stun the Reds and help Leicester exact revenge for one of its three losses on the season.

Huth scores two at Man City; Feb. 6, 2016

A match at Manchester City was supposed to be the start of Leicester's downfall, but the Foxes were having none of that. Robert Huth scored in the third minute to shock the Etihad faithful, and he added another later to proclaim Leicester's intentions in a 3-1 win.

Ulloa beats Norwich late; Feb. 27, 2016

Both times Leicester lost to Arsenal it followed up with wins over Norwich City to right the ship. The second time was far more thrilling, with Leonardo Ulloa scoring an 89th-minute winner at King Power Stadium to put the title ship back on course.

Officially safe! March 1, 2016

Not that it was ever remotely in doubt, but Leicester ensured safety from relegation with a 2-2 home draw vs. West Brom. Given Claudio Ranieri's cautious approach to overstating goals, the preseason expectations and last season's heroic charge out of the drop zone, the achievement was still notable and allowed Leicester to officially look ahead to bigger things.

Kante returns, Mahrez scores vs. Watford; March 5, 2016

Vital midfielder N'Golo Kante returned from an injury and Riyad Mahrez scored a highlight-reel goal–again–as Leicester won at Watford 1-0 to keep pressure on Tottenham and Arsenal in the title chase. The club's record away from home (11-2-4) is a big driver of its overall success.

Okazaki's bicycle kick beats Newcastle; March 14, 2016

Shinji Okazaki's bicycle kick goal gave Leicester a nervy 1-0 win over Newcastle on a day which Leicester entered leading Tottenham by just two points in the Premier League table.

Captain Morgan helps Leicester extend lead; April 3, 2016

With Tottenham dropping points to Liverpool the previous day, Leicester took full advantage. Defender and captain Wes Morgan scored his only goal of the season in a 1-0 win over Southampton that stretched the club's lead atop the table to seven points.

Leicester clinches Champions League place; April 10, 2016

It went overlooked given the club's title aspirations, but Leicester clinched an almost equally improbable place in next season's Champions League with a 2-0 win at Sunderland, cementing a top-four place. Jamie Vardy's two goals did the honors.

Ulloa's late equalizing PK vs. West Ham; April 17, 2016

Leonardo Ulloa calmly converted a penalty kick deep into second-half stoppage time to cap a game full of controversy and secure a vital point in a 2-2 draw with West Ham.

Ulloa scores two in Vardy's absence; April 24, 2016

With leading scorer Jamie Vardy suspended because of a referee altercation in the previous match vs. West Ham, Leonardo Ulloa stepped into the starting lineup and scored twice in a 4-0 rout of Swansea City. A Tottenham draw the following day put Leicester in position to clinch the title with three points from its final three games.

The Vardy Party; May 2, 2016

Leicester players gathered at Jamie Vardy's house to watch Chelsea take on Tottenham in the decisive match in the title race. It was the Vardy Party to top all Vardy Parties, as Leicester was crowned champion following the 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge.

Ranieri's Guard of Honor; May 14, 2016

Claudio Ranieri returns to Stamford Bridge, where he was jettisoned in 2004 for Jose Mourinho, and steps through Chelsea's guard of honor, which the outgoing champions provided for Leicester City.

“Whichever team loses out will have to face their recent playoffs demons as Boro were beaten in last year's final whilst Brighton lost two semifinals in 2013 and 2014,” said Richard Foster, author of ‘The Agony and The Ecstasy: A Comprehensive History of the Football League Playoffs.’ “It will be a severe test of their spirit.”

Boro has drawn its last three games and Karanka has tried to turn last season’s disappointment into a positive.

“It was a good lesson for everybody, I think,” he said. “Last season we lost the final because we weren’t ready to get promotion. I don’t want to say we are ready this season because I don’t know, but we are more mature, more experienced, better players–especially when we play at home.”

There is more pressure on Karanka and Boro this time around–but if there was any justice, the team that misses out Saturday should go on and win the playoff.

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