2026 World Cup: The Favorites to Win the Golden Boot

Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane, Ronaldo Nazário, Gerd Müller, Eusébio … many of soccer’s sharpest marksmen have scooped the Golden Boot at past World Cups.

The award dished out to the top goalscorer at each edition of the game’s most prestigious tournament, another cast of superstars will contest the individual prize in North America this summer.

While there have been some surprise past winners of the accolade, it’s generally been clinched by elite forwards conjuring their magic on the grandest international stage. This summer is unlikely to buck that trend, especially considering the wealth of dazzling sharpshooters descending upon the United States, Canada and Mexico.

With that in mind, here are Sports Illustrated’s 10 favorites to win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot.

10. Lautaro Martínez (Argentina)

Argentina attempts to defend its world title this summer and while Lionel Messi will undoubtedly hog headlines during his final World Cup, Inter striker Lautaro Martínez could prove instrumental to La Albiceleste’s bid for successive titles.

The 28-year-old blanked at the 2022 tournament in Qatar and actually lost his starting berth during the group phase, but Martínez was Argentina’s goalscoring hero at the 2024 Copa América. Managing a tournament-high five goals in the U.S., he also provided the final’s winning strike.

Martínez will be desperate to impart his brilliance on the world stage this time around and another stellar scoring season with runaway Serie A leaders Inter sees him enter the tournament in strong form.

9. Ousmane Dembélé (France)

Following his astonishing Ballon d’Or winning 2024–25 campaign, Ousmane Dembélé’s standards have slipped slightly this season. The Frenchman hasn’t been as prolific as last year, yet could end the campaign as a Ligue 1 and European champion with Paris Saint-Germain once more having supplied a healthy total for the French giants.

France’s star-studded attack boasts ludicrous depth heading to North America, Dembélé just one of its forward dynamos capable of propelling Les Bleus to their third world crown. Whether playing in wide areas or through the middle, the 28-year-old is an undeniable goalscoring threat.

France is among the candidates for the trophy, meaning Dembélé will likely earn plenty of opportunities to pad his tally throughout the tournament. Few would be surprised if he set the competition alight.

8. Raphinha (Brazil)

Brazil’s influence has waned over the past two decades, but an extremely talented squad led by Carlo Ancelotti is aiming to add to the Seleção’s record five World Cup triumphs this summer. Raphinha will be essential to their success.

The Barcelona winger, like France’s Dembélé, has been unable to be quite as devastating as he was last season during the current campaign, injuries having robbed the winger of momentum and minutes. However, he’s remained a regular provider for the soon-to-be La Liga champions.

An issue for Raphinha could be those around him. Brazil has struggled to make deep runs at recent tournaments and another early exit would limit his opportunities to sparkle.

7. Vinicius Junior (Brazil)

Of course, another issue for Raphinha might be his compatriot Vinicius Junior, who will share the goalscoring burden with his Clásico rival this summer. The Real Madrid star approaches the tournament in strong form, too, even with Los Blancos struggling to throw their weight around.

Vinicius has been surprisingly lean in front of goal in yellow and green, scoring just eight times in 47 national team appearances. That’s hardly a tally befitting of his genius, but those woes could be remedied by former Madrid coach and close ally Ancelotti.

The wise Italian veteran has always managed to get the best out of the 2024 Ballon d’Or runner-up, who will be determined to better his one-goal tally from the 2022 World Cup.

6. Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)

On the international stage, Cristiano Ronaldo cannot be underestimated. The 41-year-old may no longer be testing himself against elite defenses on a weekly basis as he leads the line for Al Nassr, but there are few doubts he still boasts the prolific edge which has propeled him to greatness.

For better or worse, Ronaldo will lead the line for Roberto Martínez’s Portugal this summer, and is likely to play the bulk of minutes during his final World Cup. A deep run would offer Ronaldo a strong shot at his first Golden Boot at his sixth attempt.

International soccer’s leading goalscorer will be on free kicks and penalties to help boost his total, while also boasting the luxury of playing alongside some of the world’s leading creators, such as Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha and Bernardo Silva.

5. Erling Haaland (Norway)

Norway has been tipped as a ‘dark horse’ this summer as it returns to the world stage, Erling Haaland’s sharpshooting integral to its qualification and possible success in North America. A total of 55 goals in 49 appearances for the national team is simply ridiculous.

Even if Norway struggles to live up to its pre-tournament hype, everyone is well aware of Haaland’s ability to burst into life at the drop of a hat. The Manchester City striker scores hat tricks for fun and needs few chances to find the net. Even three group stage games could be enough for him to reach five or six goals.

A positive end to the campaign with Man City will only boost Haaland’s morale ahead of the tournament, Norway’s hopes lying firmly on his shoulders. Luckily, pressure is no problem for the Nordic machine.

4. Lamine Yamal (Spain)

Lamine Yamal is preparing for his first World Cup, but the 18-year-old knows how to handle expectations on the international stage. Critical to Spain’s Euro 2024 success, even scoring the Goal of the Tournament and winning Young Player of the Tournament, the precocious winger is unlikely to be overawed in North America.

Whether Yamal can provide the sheer goalscoring output required to win the Golden Boot remains to be seen, but he’s certain to be among the strikes for La Roja as they hunt a second world title. Yamal is already Spain’s attacking talisman.

The teenager’s Barcelona form has been mightily impressive, too. The club’s leading goalscorer across all competitions this term, Yamal is expected to light up North America with his artistry and clinical touch once he recovers from a hamstring injury.

3. Lionel Messi (Argentina)

Somewhat surprisingly, Lionel Messi has never won the Golden Boot at the World Cup. Bested in the final by Mbappé in Qatar, the Inter Miami magician will be seeking the accolade for the first time on what will also be his final tournament for the defending champs.

Argentina still functions through Messi despite his veteran status and its success this summer will hinge on the diminutive eight-time Ballon d’Or winner. A tally of 116 goals is certain to be bolstered in North America, territory familiar to the forward.

Four more goals would make him the World Cup’s leading scorer—provided he’s not outperformed by Mbappé—and given his continued significance for the South Americans, one would be brave to bet against Messi finishing as top dog.

2. Harry Kane (England)

Kane became only the second Englishman to claim the Golden Boot during a run to the semifinals in 2018, following in the footsteps of 1986 recipient Gary Lineker. In Tottenham Hotspur colors at the time, Kane looks an even more viable candidate for the accolade now he’s dominating the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich.

Kane will almost certainly win the European Golden Boot this year, the 32-year-old’s collection of individual prizes growing with each passing year, and he’s primed to lead the charts at the World Cup providing England can avoid a premature exit.

While the Three Lions are not the most expansive team to watch under Thomas Tuchel, Kane seldom has issues finding the net no matter his side’s tactical approach. Only injury can prevent the England captain starring this summer.

1. Kylian Mbappé (France)

Like Kane, Mbappé can become the first player in World Cup history to win the Golden Boot twice by outscoring his rivals in North America. Despite final heartbreak at the hands of Argentina in 2022, the Frenchman’s eight goals were enough to pip Messi to the prize.

Off the back of an astonishing goalscoring campaign for Real Madrid, expectations are high for Mbappé. Despite boasting many of the world’s elite as international teammates, his performances will still be the heartbeat of France’s title ambitions.

Mbappé has already surpassed the 40-goal mark in Madrid colors this term and could hardly be sharper ahead of the World Cup, especially having fought off a nagging knee injury. He’s the leading candidate for the Golden Boot for good reason.

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