84 Points to 82—That’s How Close the Premier League Title Race Could Be

Arsenal’s six-point advantage over Manchester City was preserved after another frenetic weekend of action. The leaders have the talent, the hunters the experience of getting it done—it really could go down to the wire.

Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta look to be going head-to-head for the title. | Sports Illustrated

The Premier League title race is not simply a game of tactics and technique now. It’s a battle of nerves. Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, currently six points clear, can hear the thundering hooves of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City thoroughbreds behind them. Tuning in to City’s remarkable late victory at Liverpool on Sunday, they heard Guardiola players’ outpouring of joy and absorbing of confidence.

Arsenal know and respect City. They can see the spine of the formidable barrier of Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal, Ruben Dias and Marc Guéhi at centre back and Rodri commanding in front of them. They see the extraordinary goal machine of Erling Haaland in attack and how City are set up from wide and through the middle to serve the Norwegian. It’s all about Arsenal focusing on themselves, not fearing City. It’s all in the mind now.

The greatest manager in the history of the Premier League, Sir Alex Ferguson (13 titles to Guardiola’s six), would play mind games with rivals. His rhetoric rattled Kevin Keegan at Newcastle United, Rafa Benítez at Liverpool, occasionally Arsène Wenger at Arsenal, but he failed with a famous comment about Blackburn Rovers studiously ignored by their then manager Kenny Dalglish in 1995.

Ferguson proclaimed that Rovers could do a “Devon Loch” in the run-in to the finishing line, referencing a famous horse who jumped an imaginary fence when out in front and lost the 1956 Grand National. Dalglish professed ignorance of “Devon Loch,” held his nerve, steered Rovers to the title and received a gracious letter of congratulations from Ferguson which concluded with “Your father must have told you about Devon Loch!”

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Arteta Showing Resilience of an Elite Manager

Mikel Arteta has evolved as a manager this season and is more in control. | Glyn KIRK/AFP/Getty Images

Rovers didn’t falter and nor should Arsenal. Arteta gives every impression of being in control. The Spaniard cuts a different figure this season. He’s tweaked his approach in press conferences, keeping his answers slightly shorter, exuding a business-like demeanour. Arteta could have bitten on Liam Rosenior’s comments about Arsenal being disrespectful for having a goalkeeping coach stepping into Chelsea’s half during the warm-up last week.

Instead, Arteta limited his response to a swift apology loaded with a caveat of “it happens,” i.e. most goalkeeping coaches go into opposing halves to direct long balls to hone their keeper’s catching. Arteta defused the situation ably, and moved on, work to do, thank you.

He’s on a mission, taking care of business. Arteta has grown into the role of elite manager. He’s toned down his antics in the technical area, gestures that antagonise opposing fans, partly because his team is more in control. Arteta surveys the pitch and sees players at the top of their game, especially through the spine of the side. David Raya, the agile shot-stopper, made an astonishing double save from Sunderland’s Brian Brobbey at the weekend. Arteta can admire the two sentries in front of Raya. William Saliba has the pace to quell counters. Gabriel has the leadership and determination to repel more physical attacks.

Arteta knows the ideal balance he’s forged in midfield of the danger-spotting, patrolling Martín Zubimendi, even more important after injury to Mikel Merino, and the raiding Declan Rice. Ball-gatherer and hunter, these 27-year-olds already share nine Premier League goals between them this season.

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Few have such a precise finish as Zubimendi or are in such prolific form from midfield with four goals in 11 across various competitions. Few deliver such chaos-inducing, inswinging corners as Rice, who has seven assists this season all-in.

Turning his gaze further forward, Arteta will note with a smile that Viktor Gyökeres is finally beginning to fulfil the manager’s early-season billing of “someone very direct, very powerful, a proper nine who can stretch the pitch, who has the goal between the eyes.” It was understood that Arteta was more interested in Benjamin Šeško in the summer but the sporting director, Andrea Berta, preferred Gyökeres.

Arsenal fans are now becoming more familiar with Gyökeres’ goal celebration, his interlocking fingers forming a maskdrawn from the Batman film “The Dark Knight Rises.” The Swede now has six goals in his last eight games, including against Chelsea and Inter Milan, after seven in his opening 24. He’s needed to raise his game. Where once Arteta relied on Merino as understudy upfront, Arsenal’s manager is able to field Gabriel Jesus and the versatile Kai Havertz, both returning from injury at the right time. Gyökeres knows the increased level of competition for places. Step up or stand down.

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Arsenal’s Individual Winners Coming Together As One

Declan Rice lifted a European trophy with West Ham. | Lukas Kabon/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

We know City have the mindset of champions. They know the road to glory. They have the muscle memory. Do Arsenal have the mental backbone to go with their undoubted strength of spine through the team? Well, Raya and Zubimendi are both reigning champions of Europe with Spain, Rice drove West Ham United to Conference League glory, Gyökeres won back-to-back titles in Portugal with Sporting CP, Jesus won four titles with City and Havertz settled a Champions League final in Chelsea’s favour. Arsenal have individuals with experience of winning; they just now need them to deliver as a collective.

That is why two dates will be underlined on the planner on the wall at London Colney, their training retreat. Both are dates with destiny against City. March 22 sees Arsenal at Wembley in the Carabao Cup final; if Arsenal win that showdown against Guardiola’s side, their nerves will be strengthened further for the title run in. April 18 sees Arsenal at the Etihad with five games remaining after that. Will Arteta lapse into caution? Or be bold?

Arsenal fans will hope Arteta noted Liverpool’s failed attempt to close down the game against City. It was naïve of Liverpool to think they could defend a lead for 16 minutes against opponents as desperate for points as Haaland and Bernardo Silva were. City had to respond and did.

With third-placed Aston Villa lacking strength in depth, missing key midfielders injured, and not in the best of form, it is down to City to try and chase down Arsenal. Arteta handles the pressure well. He’s rotated well across four competitions, drawing from the well of talent deepened by smart recruitment. He started only one regular, Gabriel, in the FA Cup win at Portsmouth and should do the same against Wigan Athletic in the fourth round.

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Only One Priority for Supporters in North London

Arsenal are excelling in all competitions. | Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC/Getty Images

In the Champions League, Arsenal face either Borussia Dortmund or Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen or Olympiakos in the round of 16 on March 10/11 and 17/18. Arsenal have five Premier League games before the first leg. Go strong in those and keep a good lead, then go strong in the Champions League. But ask most Arsenal fans and the title is the overwhelming priority.

In seeking any reassurance, Arsenal need only look at their record of three losses from 39 games this season in all competitions. Those losses can be narrowed down to: a Dominik Szoboszlai free-kick special with seven minutes remaining at Anfield; a curling Emi Buendia gem with the last kick of the game at Villa just after Emi Martínez athletically denied Martin Ødegaard a winner; and then Matheus Cunha’s 25-yarder for a Manchester United side revitalised by Michael Carrick.

And so to the remaining games and possible results. Arsenal have Brentford away this Thursday, followed by Wolves and Tottenham away, Chelsea at home, Brighton & Hove Albion away, Everton and Bournemouth at home, City away, Newcastle and Fulham at home, West Ham away, Burnley at home and finally Crystal Palace away.

City could close to three points as they play a day earlier against Fulham at home, followed by Newcastle at home, Leeds away, Nottingham Forest at home, West Ham and Chelsea away, Arsenal at home, Burnley and Everton away, Brentford at home, Bournemouth away and Aston Villa at home. City have still to learn the date of their home game with Crystal Palace, rearranged from March 21 because of the Carabao Cup final.

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Arsenal and Man City’s Predicted Results

Gameweek	Arsenal (56 points)	Man City (50 points)
26	Brentford (A) - Draw	Fulham (H) - Win
27	Wolves (A) - Win	Newcastle (H) - Win
28	Tottenham (A) - Draw	Leeds (A) - Lose
29	Chelsea (H) - Draw	Nottingham Forest (H) - Win
30	Brighton (A) - Win	West Ham (A) - Win
31	Everton (H) - Win	*Crystal Palace (H) - Win
32	Bournemouth (H) - Win	Chelsea (A) - Draw
33	Man City (A) - Lose	Arsenal (H) - Win
34	Newcastle (H) - Win	Burnley (A) - Win
35	Fulham (H) - Win	Everton (A) - Win
36	West Ham (A) - Win	Brentford (H) - Win
37	Burnley (H) - Win	Bournemouth (A) - Draw
38	Crystal Palace (A) - Draw	Aston Villa (H) - Win
Total Points	84	82

That May 17 trip to the Vitality Stadium, facing Andoni Iraola’s well-organised, fast-breaking Bournemouth, could prove the key moment in the title race. Could Arteta rely on Iraola?

Growing up in the Basque Country, the pair used to play football on the beach as kids, played for a local team in San Sebastián and briefly for Spain’s U21s. Their enduring friendship could deepen further were Iraola to do Arteta a favour against City. There will be twists and turns in the title race, but Arsenal should keep their nerve, their fans know they have to be relentlessly positive, and secure a first title in 22 years.

Arsenal by two points. That’s how close it be.

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