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Every Club’s Route to Champions League Final Ranked From Easiest to Hardest
The last 16 draw has set the stage for the remaining phases of the Champions League as participants plan out their routes to May’s final.
Kinder to some than others, the draw has forged some tantalizing double-headed duels across the continent, but there was one particular point of interest that appeared after all the balls had been selected.
The Champions League bracket now appears rather lopsided. One half of the draw is notably tougher than the other half. The misfortune of the eight teams forced to fight on a particularly star-studded battleground has been celebrated by the remaining clubs, who boast a much simpler route to glory.
But which teams have the easiest and toughest paths to the final?
Champions League 2025–26 Knockout Bracket
Routes to the Champions Legaue Final Ranked From Easiest to Hardest
16. Arsenal
The general consensus following the draw’s conclusion was that Lady Luck shone brightly on Arsenal. The Gunners were placed on the “Blue Path,” which is the much more straightforward of the two routes to the final, and were handed a clash with Bayer Leverkusen in the last 16—their reward for finishing first in the league phase.
Surprise packages Sporting CP or Bodø/Glimt await in the quarterfinal, before a battle with one of Barcelona, Atlético Madrid, Newcastle United or north London rivals Tottenham Hotspur. Tough fixtures, yes, but they could have been much harder.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Leverkusen |
Quarterfinal | Bodø/Glimt, Sporting |
Semifinal | Newcastle, Barcelona, Atlético, Tottenham |
Final | PSG, Chelsea, Galatasaray, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Man City, Atalanta, Bayern |
15. Sporting CP
Sporting CP fortuitously swerved Real Madrid in the last 16 and were instead drawn against fellow over-performers Bodø/Glimt. While that will prove a harder fixture on the field than on paper, it was the favorable choice for the Lisbon giants.
A quarterfinal that will almost certainly be against Arsenal is probably as far as Sporting can realistically expect to go.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Bodø/Glimt |
Quarterfinal | Leverkusen, Arsenal |
Semifinal | Newcastle, Barcelona, Atlético, Tottenham |
Final | PSG, Chelsea, Galatasaray, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Man City, Atalanta, Bayern |
14. Bodø/Glimt
Given that Bodø defeated Manchester City, Atlético Madrid and Inter (twice) to make it to the last 16, they will prove a stern test for any opponent in the remaining knockout stages.
A draw with Sporting gives them a strong chance of making the last eight and they will be keeping their fingers crossed for a Leverkusen miracle against Arsenal.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Sporting |
Quarterfinal | Leverkusen, Arsenal |
Semifinal | Newcastle, Barcelona, Atlético, Tottenham |
Final | PSG, Chelsea, Galatasaray, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Man City, Atalanta, Bayern |
13. Barcelona
Things could have been much, much worse for Barça. Not only did they avoid a battle with PSG in the last 16, drawing Newcastle instead, they managed to sidestep the more difficult half of the draw—ensuring battles with the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, Real Madrid and Manchester City won’t come until the final.
La Blaugrana beat Newcastle earlier this season and will be huge favorites to triumph again over two legs. Progression will see them face Tottenham or Atlético, which are fairly kind quarterfinal fixtures—although the latter did just knock Barça out of the Copa del Rey.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Newcastle |
Quarterfinal | Atlético, Tottenham |
Semifinal | Bodø/Glimt, Sporting, Leverkusen, Arsenal |
Final | PSG, Chelsea, Galatasaray, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Man City, Atalanta, Bayern |
12. Atlético Madrid
Atlético were arguably handed the easiest tie of the last 16. Sure, Spurs boast some quality individuals, but they’re in truly disastrous form and will be more focussed on Premier League survival than another European trophy.
Diego Simeone’s side face a subsequent cash with Newcastle or Barcelona, fancying their chances up against either opponent. The toughest test en route to the final would likely be Arsenal in a possible semifinal—the Gunners won the league phase clash with Atléti 4–0.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Tottenham |
Quarterfinal | Newcastle, Barcelona |
Semifinal | Bodø/Glimt, Sporting, Leverkusen, Arsenal |
Final | PSG, Chelsea, Galatasaray, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Man City, Atalanta, Bayern |
11. Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs really have no hope of reaching the Champions League final, let alone winning the competition. While their form has been better in Europe than on the domestic front, they appear likely to be swept aside before the showpiece event rolls around at the end of May.
Even if they bypass an inconsistent Atléti team, they will come up against Barça or Newcastle—both of whom will be considered favorites for a quarterfinal showdown.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Atlético |
Quarterfinal | Newcastle, Barcelona |
Semifinal | Bodø/Glimt, Sporting, Leverkusen, Arsenal |
Final | PSG, Chelsea, Galatasaray, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Man City, Atalanta, Bayern |
10. Newcastle United
Should Newcastle successfully navigate an arduous tie with Barcelona, the draw opens up for them. Battles with Spurs or Atléti could yield positive outcomes and even conquering Arsenal is not beyond the realms of possibility.
However, Eddie Howe’s side have proven tremendously unreliable this season, and appear unlikely to make it beyond the last 16 in the first place.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Barcelona |
Quarterfinal | Atlético, Tottenham |
Semifinal | Bodø/Glimt, Sporting, Leverkusen, Arsenal |
Final | PSG, Chelsea, Galatasaray, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Man City, Atalanta, Bayern |
9. Bayer Leverkusen
Few will give Bayer Leverkusen any hopes of making it beyond the last 16. This is no longer Xabi Alonso’s super team, with an inexperienced side almost certain to be ousted by Arsenal.
Leverkusen will need to pull off the performance of their season to merely stay in the tie ahead of the second leg in north London. If a miracle is performed, then Bodø or Sporting await in the last eight.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Arsenal |
Quarterfinal | Bodø/Glimt, Sporting |
Semifinal | Newcastle, Barcelona, Atlético, Tottenham |
Final | PSG, Chelsea, Galatasaray, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Man City, Atalanta, Bayern |
8. Liverpool
Liverpool benefitted from the easier of two possible last 16 adversaries, avoiding Atlético and booking a date with Galatasaray instead. However, the cost of that fortune is that they find themselves on the “Silver Path”—the side of the draw containing the bulk of heavyweights.
PSG or Chelsea will be their opposition if they make the quarterfinal stage, followed by one of Bayern Munich, Atalanta, Real Madrid or Man City. Given their underperformance domestically this term, there are few expectations that the six-time champions can claim number seven this term.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Galatasaray |
Quarterfinal | PSG, Chelsea |
Semifinal | Real Madrid, Man City, Atalanta, Bayern |
Final | Newcastle, Barcelona, Atlético, Tottenham, Bodø/Glimt, Sporting, Leverkusen, Arsenal |
7. Bayern Munich
Atalanta will prove no pushovers in the last 16 but Bayern Munich should still ease into the last eight. Unfortunately for the German giants, Real Madrid or Man City will line up against them in the quarterfinals—two formidable opponents.
Madrid would be favored given their iffy form throughout the campaign, but the Bundesliga champions will then have to overcome one of Liverpool, Galatasaray, Chelsea or PSG in the semis. If Bayern are to win the trophy, they will have to do it the hard way.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Atalanta |
Quarterfinal | Real Madrid, Man City |
Semifinal | PSG, Chelsea, Galatasaray or Liverpool |
Final | Newcastle, Barcelona, Atlético, Tottenham, Bodø/Glimt, Sporting, Leverkusen, Arsenal |
6. Paris Saint-Germain
A repeat of last summer’s Club World Cup final will be staged in the last 16, PSG facing off against the Chelsea side that demolished them. Despite the reigning European champions still operating below last term’s standards, many will regard them as favorites for the rematch.
PSG knocked Liverpool out of Europe last season and would likely have to repeat the feat in the quarterfinal, after which they would be forced to topple another big-hitter en route to the final.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Chelsea |
Quarterfinal | Galatasaray, Liverpool |
Semifinal | Real Madrid, Man City, Atalanta, Bayern |
Final | Newcastle, Barcelona, Atlético, Tottenham, Bodø/Glimt, Sporting, Leverkusen, Arsenal |
5. Chelsea
Chelsea’s route to the final after the last 16 is identical to PSG’s, but their focus will first be on finding a way past Luis Enrique’s star-studded unit. They at least boast home advantage for the second leg.
Liverpool are probable quarterfinal foes and Chelsea will take encouragement from having already beaten the Reds this season in the Premier League. Of their semifinal opponents, they haven’t faced Real Madrid or Bayern this term, but have lost to Atalanta and drawn with Man City.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | PSG |
Quarterfinal | Galatasaray, Liverpool |
Semifinal | Real Madrid, Man City, Atalanta, Bayern |
Final | Newcastle, Barcelona, Atlético, Tottenham, Bodø/Glimt, Sporting, Leverkusen, Arsenal |
4. Manchester City
For the umpteenth season on the spin, Man City face Real Madrid in the knockout stage of the Champions League. The Cityzens have already beaten the record European champions during the league phase, triumphing at the Santiago Bernabéu to offer them belief ahead of the upcoming last 16 clash.
Given Madrid’s inconsistencies and injuries, City will be expected to progress, and Pep Guardiola will then likely be greeted by former apprentice Vincent Kompany and his Bayern team. A battle with Liverpool, Chelsea, PSG or Gala would offer an enthralling semifinal.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Real Madrid |
Quarterfinal | Atalanta, Bayern |
Semifinal | PSG, Chelsea, Galatasaray, Liverpool |
Final | Newcastle, Barcelona, Atlético, Tottenham, Bodø/Glimt, Sporting, Leverkusen, Arsenal |
3. Real Madrid
Madrid may be underdogs heading into this year’s iteration of their reoccurring battle with City, but only fools dismiss Los Blancos in the Champions League. Muscle memory often trumps form when it comes to the latter stages.
However, adding a 16th European title to their cabinet appears an extremely tall order this year. Álvaro Arbeloa’s performers would have to overcome three European giants to simply reach the final, where they could well face Arsenal or Clásico rivals Barcelona.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Man City |
Quarterfinal | Atalanta, Bayern |
Semifinal | PSG, Chelsea, Galatasaray, Liverpool |
Final | Newcastle, Barcelona, Atlético, Tottenham, Bodø/Glimt, Sporting, Leverkusen, Arsenal |
2. Galatasaray
Galatsaray would have much preferred Spurs to Liverpool for their last 16 clash, but the Turkish side can take solace from having already beaten Slot’s side in Istanbul this term. Victor Osimhen scored the only goal of a hard-fought league phase battle.
Still, it will be a tricky tie, especially with the second leg at Anfield, and similarly stern tests lie beyond the last 16.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Liverpool |
Quarterfinal | PSG, Chelsea |
Semifinal | Real Madrid, Man City, Atalanta, Bayern |
Final | Newcastle, Barcelona, Atlético, Tottenham, Bodø/Glimt, Sporting, Leverkusen, Arsenal |
1. Atalanta
Atalanta pulled off an almighty comeback against German opposition in the playoff round, conquering Borussia Dortmund 4–3 on aggregate, but their Champions League journey appears set to end at the last 16.
Even if they’re able to pull off an all-time shock and beat Bayern, they will then be fearing clashes with other continental behemoths en route to the final.
Round | Potential Opponents |
|---|---|
Last 16 | Bayern Munich |
Quarterfinal | Real Madrid or Man City |
Semifinal | PSG, Chelsea, Galatasaray or Liverpool |
Final | Newcastle, Barcelona, Atlético, Tottenham, Bodø/Glimt, Sporting, Leverkusen, Arsenal |
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Ewan Ross-Murray is a freelance soccer writer who focuses primarily on the Premier League. Ewan was born in Leicester, but his heart, and club allegiance, belongs to Liverpool.