How Liverpool Could Face Premier League Playoff for Champions League Qualification

There could be one final twist in the hunt for Champions League qualification.

Liverpool’s season could yet get worse. | Catherine Ivill/AMA/Getty Images

Liverpool’s embarrassing campaign could get worse this weekend as they head into their Premier League finale uncertain of Champions League qualification.

While the Reds are incredibly likely to be playing in Europe’s leading competition next season, their berth has not yet been mathematically confirmed. Bournemouth are still technically in the race for fifth, ensuring a tense Sunday afternoon at Anfield.

Liverpool welcome Brentford to Merseyside knowing victory or a draw would be enough to qualify for the Champions League, but defeat would leave them at the mercy of Bournemouth, who travel to Nottingham Forest on the final day.

An atrocious campaign will come to its conclusion this weekend—or will it?

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How Liverpool Could Face Unthinkable Champions League Playoff

Liverpool have left themselves in an awkward position. | Robbie Jay Barratt-AMA/Getty Images

Liverpool are all but certain to be playing Champions League soccer next season, but losing at home to Brentford opens the door to some unthinkable possibilities.

Bournemouth would move level on points if they beat Forest and the Reds lose, and a seven-goal swing would see the Cherries usurp their Champions League rivals on goal difference. For example, if Liverpool somehow lost 4–0 and Bournemouth won 3–0 at the City Ground, the latter would rise into fifth.

What is similarly horrifying is the prospect of a playoff for fifth, which remains a possbility ahead of the final day—no matter how unlikely.

If Liverpool were to lose 1–0 and Bournemouth win 5–0, then a one-legged clash at a neutral venue would be staged to decide who finishes fifth, as outlined by Opta’sMichael Reid. Yes, seriously. That’s because Liverpool and Bournemouth would be level on all the decisive factors:

• Points: 59
• Goal difference: +9
• Goals scored: 62
• Head-to-head record: One win each
• Away goals scored in head-to-head games: Two each

After all those metrics are considered, a playoff is used.

Given Liverpool are given a 99.65% chance of qualifying for the Champions League by Opta, the prospect of them missing out on the competition via a playoff is exceedingly unlikely.

The Reds have never lost to or conceded against Brentford on home soil in the Premier League—although they did lose away at the Bees earlier this season—and Bournemouth, while boasting a strong record away at Forest, have never beaten them by more than a single goal at the City Ground.

However, given Liverpool’s form and Bournemouth’s 17-match unbeaten streak, the prospect of final day drama is not out of the question.

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