Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Winner As Semifinals Set

Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain and Atlético Madrid make up the final four.

The Champions League is down to its final four. | Ricardo Nogueira/Sports Press Photo/Kristian Skeie-UEFA/Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC/Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Alberto Gardin/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images

“What is Champions League level?” Former Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp once asked. “I saw a lot of rubbish games at Champions League level.”

The thrilling nature of this season’s quarterfinals may very well have met Klopp’s threshold for continental excellence. Bayern Munich and Real Madrid duked out two instant classics while Barcelona and Atlético Madrid had their own slugfest in Spain. Even Liverpool rallied to give Paris Saint-Germain some headaches on an atmospheric Anfield night. Arsenal and Sporting CP may have served up a spectacle that wasn’t exactly easy on the eye, but there was a tense tactical battle boiling beneath the surface.

The semifinals threaten to produce another series of enthralling spectacles. As Bayern Munich take on PSG on the mouthwatering side of the draw, Mikel Arteta and Diego Simeone will both be digging through their bag of tricks to find a way of reaching the final with Arsenal and Átletico.

Opta’s supercomputer have taken on the daunting task of predicting that showpiece fixture as well as the team that embodies the highest level of the Champions League.

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Supercomputer Ranks the Chances of Every Champions League Semifinalist

David Raya is Arsenal’s most important player.

The most clean sheets in the Premier League and Champions League this campaign. Since the start of last season, 13 clean sheets in 18 Champions League home games, making the Emirates a fortress. The backbone to Arsenal’s defence.… pic.twitter.com/C3uQL2qcJe

— Sports Illustrated FC (@SI_FootballClub) April 15, 2026

Rank	Team	Title Chances
1.	Arsenal	36.75%
2.	Bayern Munich	34.61%
3.	PSG	19.35%
4.	Atlético Madrid	9.29%

Out of all the remaining teams in the competition, Arsenal comfortably have the least Champions League pedigree. The one-time, beaten finalists are up against an Atlético side which twice went to the showpiece fixture under Simeone. The club could have even been European champions five decades early had Miguel Reina, the father of ex-Liverpool shot-stopper Pepe, not been beaten by a tame, long-range punt from Hans-Georg Schwarzenbeck seven seconds before the end of the 1974 European Cup final.

Bayern Munich won that year’s trophy after a replay, the first of the club’s six continental crowns. PSG joined the winners club last year.

Despite their lowly standing at this stage of the competition, Arsenal remain favorites in the inscrutable eyes of the supercomputer. Clearly, not much stock has been put in the team’s recent performances.

After suffering through 90 tepid, goalless minutes against Sporting on Wednesday, even an arch-optimist like Gunners manager Mikel Arteta admitted: “We are not perfect, we need to improve things, that’s for sure.”

No team left in the Champions League is “perfect,” which makes the competition’s conclusion so intriguing. Bayern Munich may have the edge for several onlookers after racking up 37 goals thus far, including six across two legs against Real Madrid. However, they also conceded four times to this dysfunctional iteration of Los Blancos.

PSG have an even more potent frontline than Bayern and will hardly give up their European crown without a fight. Yet, the odds aren’t in their favor.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Semifinals

Celebrations went deep into the Bavarian night. | Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Date	Fixture	Likeliest Winner
Tuesday, April 28	PSG vs. Bayern Munich	Bayern Munich (61.28%)
Wednesday, April 29	Atlético Madrid vs. Arsenal	Arsenal (73.40%)

As the buzz of a seven-goal thriller against Real Madrid was still reverberating around the Allianz Arena, Kompany was asked to how it ranked among the best moments of his managerial career. A wry grin crept across the Belgian’s face. “I remember we beat Blackburn twice [with] Burnley,” Kompany instantly recalled. Perhaps a semifinal victory over the defending European champions will surpass a Lancashire derby win.

Bayern are favorites to advance beyond PSG in the final four and for good reason. The German champions have already beaten their French counterparts this season, matching the incredibly physical capacity of Luis Enrique’s side with an audacious man-marking approach which Arteta wants to be ruled out of the sport.

Arsenal’s semifinal with Atlético has been feared by some neutrals as a spectacle of rampant anti-soccer. However, if any side is going to drag the contest into the mud it will be the Gunners. Arteta’s side have been forced to lean upon their defensive solidity while the fluency upfront has dried up—Arsenal have conceded just five goals in Europe all season.

Atlético, contrary to public perception, are no longer grizzled defensive maestros. In fact, Azerbaijani outsiders Qarabağ are the only side to have conceded more Champions League goals than Simeone’s porous outfit this season.

In a battle between waning attack and defense, Arsenal are expected to have the edge. Whether they can go all the way is an entirely different matter.

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