Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner As Arsenal, PSG Battle for Glory

Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain both spent last weekend celebrating their respective league titles, but only one will cap off their impressive 2025–26 with the Champions League trophy.

Defending cup holders PSG punched their tickets to Budapest after a thrilling semifinal bout with Bayern Munich. The two European powerhouses scored 11 goals across two legs, but it was Ousmane Dembélé’s third-minute strike at the Allianz Arena that eliminated Vincent Kompany’s men 6–5 on aggregate.

A much more defensively sound tie unfolded between Arsenal and Atlético Madrid. After the first leg ended in a 1–1 draw in the Spanish capital, Bukayo Saka fired home the only goal in the deciding leg to send the Gunners to their second Champions League final in history.

It’s tale as old as time. Arguably the best attacking team in Europe takes on arguably the best defensive side in Europe. Which one will come out on top? Here’s how the Opta supercomputer rates each finalist’s chance of claiming Champions League glory.

Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Winner

PSG could become the second team in history to win back-to-back Champions League titles. | Mattia Ozbot/UEFA/Getty Images

Team	Chance of Winning
PSG	55.78%
Arsenal	44.22%

For nearly the entire 2025–26 campaign, Opta backed Arsenal to win the Champions League. Even after both semifinal second legs, the Gunners were the supercomputer’s favorites.

Yet Opta has now changed its allegiance to PSG. The defending cup holders are given a 55.78% chance of going back-to-back, a feat only Real Madrid have achieved in the Champions League era.

Perhaps the supercomputer can simply no longer ignore the attacking firepower leading the Parisians to a second consecutive Champions League final. The team has found the back of the net on Europe’s grandest stage 44 times this season, the most ever in a single campaign in the competition’s history.

Dembélé’s recent injury update also could have played a role in the increased odds. The Frenchman declared he only suffered from “slight discomfort,” and he will certainly “be back on the pitch on May 30.”

Combined with the team’s sensational midfield, led by Vitinha, and its solid backline, PSG are more than up to the task of successfully defending their European crown.

Even though Arsenal are no longer Opta’s favorites, they still have an impressive 44.22% chance of winning their first-ever Champions League title. It’s safe to say the Gunners will take those odds any day considering their opponents.

The north London outfit will not be short on confidence either. Mikel Arteta’s men are still basking in their first Premier League title in 22 years, a feat that looked to be slipping through their fingers back in April when they squandered a nine-point lead in 11 days.

Yet Arsenal admirably got back to winning ways and closed out their campaign with the ever-elusive piece of silverware. Along the way, they maintained their unbeaten run in Europe’s premier club competition, largely in part thanks to their incredible backline and the heroics of David Raya between the posts.

William Saliba, Gabriel and Co. will have to be at their absolute best to hold PSG’s attack quiet come May 30, but with the potential of claiming a historic Champions League title on the line, the defenders—and every other player in red—will leave it all on the pitch in an effort to upset the reigning champs.

READ THE LATEST CHAMPIONS LEAGUE NEWS, ANALYSIS AND INSIGHT FROM SI FC

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