Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner As Knockouts Begin

The Champions League knockout phase is now in full swing.

Real Madrid are targeting a 16th European title. | Eric Verhoeven/Soccrates/Getty Images

The halfway point of the recently introduced Champions League knockout playoff round has arrived and much still hangs in the balance across the continent.

While there were several emphatic victors across the eight first legs, no lead is insurmountable in Europe’s premier competition. Renowned for twists, turns and unadulterated drama, especially during the knockout phase, chaos is expected in next week’s decisive second legs.

The full cast for the Champions League last 16 will soon be revealed and that could have an enormous impact on the eventual destination of the trophy. Predicting in which team’s hands it will reside at the end of another blockbuster campaign is nigh on impossible.

Fortunately, the Opta supercomputer has been in overdrive, calculating which sides are set to progress from the knockout playoffs, as well as the tournament’s likeliest winner.

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Champions League Knockout Playoff Winners Projected

PSG boast a first-leg lead. | Valery HACHE/AFP/Getty Images

Club	Chances of Reaching Last 16
Newcastle	99.77%
Bayer Leverkusen	93.67%
Galatasaray	93.63%
Paris Saint-Germain	93.30%
Borussia Dortmund	89.24%
Real Madrid	87.28%
Atlético Madrid	74.46%
Bodø/Glimt	57.38%
Inter	42.62%
Club Brugge	25.54%
Benfica	12.72%
Atalanta	10.76%
Monaco	6.70%
Juventus	6.37%
Olympiacos	6.33%
Qarabağ	0.23%

Newcastle United have all but booked their place in the last 16 as the most glamorous victors of the playoff first legs. Making the arduous trip to Qarabağ and winning 6–1 means they can relax at St James’s Park, especially with a 99.77% chance of progression to the next round—a total that actually seems a tad low considering their five-goal aggregate advantage.

Bayer Leverkusen triumphed over Olympiacos in one of the least glitzy playoff ties, winning 2–0 in Greece to give them a strong chance of making the last 16. Galatasaray were more emphatic winners, beating 10-man Juventus 5–2 in Türkiye. They should triumph on aggregate.

Reigning European champions Paris Saint-Germain had to come from two goals behind to beat fellow French outfit Monaco 3–2 at the Stade Louis II and they are expected to finish the job in the capital next week. The supercomputer gives them a 93.30% likelihood of reaching the last 16.

Things are looking promising for the participants of the 2023–24 Champions League final, too. Borussia Dortmund beat Atalanta 2–0 during their first meeting, while Real Madrid were 1–0 winners in a game marred by controversy at Benfica. The record European champions have an 87.28% chance of holding their advantage on home turf.

Despite also being two-goal winners, claiming a 3–1 victory against last season’s runners-up Inter, surprise package Bodø/Glimt are only handed a 57.38% chance of progressing after a trip to San Siro. Having beaten Manchester City, Atlético Madrid and now Inter in their past three, they can’t be written off in Milan.

The only first leg that ended all square was the 3–3 draw between Atlético Madrid and Club Brugge in Belgium. Unsurprisingly with home advantage and a superior squad for the return fixture, the Spaniards are projected to claim victory overall.

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Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner

Arsenal are still favorites for a first title. | David Price/Arsenal FC/Getty Images

Club	Chances of Winning Champions League
Arsenal	26.86%
Bayern Munich	15.19%
Man City	12.75%
Liverpool	9.48%
Chelsea	7.14%
Barcelona	5.75%
PSG	5.53%
Newcastle	4.47%
Real Madrid	3.10%
Sporting CP	2.02%
Tottenham	1.85%
Borussia Dortmund	1.41%
Inter	1.35%
Bayer Leverkusen	1.25%

The first leg of the playoff ties has done little to alter the state of play when it comes to the overall competition winner. The supercomputer is still staunchly backing Arsenal to claim a first Champions League title, its loyalty to the Gunners supported by eight straight wins during the league phase.

Bayern Munich only surrendered points to Arsenal in the league phase and their terrific form on the continent makes them second favorites. The Bundesliga giants have slipped up domestically in recent weeks but still boast more than enough firepower to claim another European crown.

The Premier League is well represented in the top five, with Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea all given decent chances of glory. All three have won the competition within the last seven years and secured some big scalps during the league phase—even if they were far from flawless.

PSG have the chance to defend their title, a rare occurrence for anybody other than Real Madrid in Europe, but Luis Enrique’s former club Barcelona are slightly favored by the supercomputer. The two sides could actually meet in the last 16, too.

Newcastle can revel in having better odds than Real Madrid to win the title, largely due to the state of play in the knockout playoffs. If both make the last 16, few would suggest that the Magpies genuinely have a stronger shot at the trophy than the 15-time champions.

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