Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner After Last 16 Draw

Real Madrid, Chelsea and Barcelona all have tricky last 16 fixtures.

Arsenal are flying in all competitions. | Rob Newell/CameraSport/Getty Images

The Champions League knockout stage was kickstarted in style across a dramatic playoff round and the stage is now set for the last 16.

Whether it be more Bodø/Glimt magic, Atalanta’s stunning turnaround or goals galore in Galatasaray’s triumph, the playoff round has set the standards expected throughout the remainder of the knockout phase.

Now the rest of Europe’s behemoths enter the fray and Friday’s draw for the round of 16 has set up some tantalizing duels. Tricky ties for continental royalty make for an awkward journey to the showpiece event, while others have been more fortunate with their path to glory.

Having furiously recalculated the odds after the last 16 draw, here’s who the fabled Opta supercomputer now believes will be crowned European champions this season.

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Supercomputer Predicts Champions League WInner

Real Madrid are given slim hopes of a 16th Champions League title. | Manu Reino/DeFodi Images/DeFodi/Getty Images.

While the supercomputer’s projections haven’t changed wildly since the draw, there has been some movement in the findings. For example, Arsenal remain the clear favorites for the a first Champions League title, but despite being drawn against Bayer Leverkusen in the last 16 and featuring in the easier half of the draw, their chance of success has dropped 2.05%.

Bayern Munich remain some distance off the Gunners in the supercomputer’s estimations, Vincent Kompany’s men residing in the more challenging half of the bracket. A clash with Atalanta, who just dumped out Bundesliga giants Borussia Dortmund, awaits in the last 16, followed by possible meetings with Real Madrid, Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea or Paris Saint-Germain further down the line.

Chances of a seventh European crown for Liverpool have risen since the draw, the Reds avoiding a tie with Atlético Madrid in the last 16 and instead securing a date with Galatasaray—who have already beaten Arne Slot’s side in the league phase. Manchester City, who have a difficult tie with Real Madrid to come, are given slightly lower odds of a second triumph.

Club	Chances of Winning
Arsenal	27.40%
Bayern Munich	14.28%
Liverpool	12.83%
Manchester City	10.79%
Barcelona	7.72%
Chelsea	6.86%
Newcastle United	4.66%
Paris Saint-Germain	4.64%
Real Madrid	2.78%
Sporting CP	2.73%
Atlético Madrid	2.00%
Tottenham Hotspur	1.22%
Atalanta	1.06%
Bayer Leverkusen	0.47%
Bodø/Glimt	0.39%
Galatasaray	0.17%

Barcelona were blessed with entrance into the simpler half of the draw, albeit their last 16 clash with Newcastle United will still prove tough. They are considered fifth favorites to win the competition, leapfrogging Chelsea after the draw. The Blues have been dealt a tough hand in reigning European champions Paris Saint-Germain in the last 16, followed by undoubtedly tricky quarterfinal and semifinal ties should they progress.

PSG find themselves below upcoming adversaries Chelsea and have actually slipped beneath Newcastle in the supercomputer’s projections—even in spite of the Magpies having to conquer Barça in the last 16.

Things are looking gloomy for Real Madrid, who are still yet to convince on the continent. They sit below PSG and only marginally ahead of Portuguese side Sporting CP and city rivals Atlético Madrid.

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Champions League Last 16 Fixtures

Fixture	Most Likely Winner (Supercomputer Odds of Progression)
Atalanta vs. Bayern Munich	Bayern Munich (76.83%)
Atlético Madrid vs. Tottenham	Atlético Madrid (53.71%)
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Arsenal	Arsenal (85.85%)
Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP	Sporting CP (63.98%)
Galatasaray vs. Liverpool	Liverpool (82.33%)
Newcastle vs. Barcelona	Barcelona (55.34%)
PSG vs. Chelsea	Chelsea (53.34%)
Real Madrid vs. Man City	Man City (64.35%)

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