Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Relegation Battle After West Ham Defeat

The Hammers’ hopes for survival were dealt a devastating blow on Tyneside.

West Ham were beaten 3–1 at Newcastle on Sunday evening. | Rob Newell/CameraSport/Getty Images

West Ham United’s hopes for survival were greatly hindered by one of the most significant VAR calls in Premier League history, and perhaps crushed by their opening 20 minutes on Tyneside.

The Hammers entered Sunday’s game having been offered a lifeline by Leeds United in the wake of their cruel home defeat to league leaders Arsenal. Leeds’ point at Tottenham Hotspur kept the Lilywhites within grasp, and a victory at Newcastle United would’ve placed immense pressure on Spurs ahead of their trip to Stamford Bridge on Tuesday.

But instead of producing the sort of performance that has thrust them into a potential position of top-flight security, West Ham reverted to their early-season selves at the worst possible time. Newcastle saved some of their best stuff for their final home outing of a disappointing season, even if West Ham’s sloppiness, set-up and laziness out of possession facilitated their impressive start.

A 2–0 deficit left them chasing the game from almost the very outset, and although there was a window for an unlikely comeback when Taty Castellanos scored brilliantly after William Osula had netted his second, West Ham ultimately fell well short of the result they required at St. James’ Park.

Here’s how their defeat has changed the outlook of the relegation scrap, according to Opta’s supercomputer.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Final Premier League Standings

Spurs need just a point to survive. | Shaun Brooks/CameraSport/Getty Images

Predicted Position	Team	Actual Points	Predicted Points	Relegation Chances
17.	Tottenham	38	40.55	6.17%
18.	West Ham	36	37.49	93.83%
19.	Burnley (R)	21	22.71	100%
20.	Wolves (R)	19	20.26	100%

Spurs supporters left the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Monday night feeling as if they’d missed a huge opportunity to take a giant leap towards safety, even if they were eventually forced to cling on to a point against Leeds.

However, they’ll be feeling considerably better about their chances of staying up after enjoying West Ham succumb up north. The Hammers were dire, with supporters exiting St. James’ Park as early as the 20th minute after goals from Nick Woltemade and the emerging Osula.

Now, Nuno Espírito Santo’s side are all but guaranteed to be playing second tier soccer next season. Their relegation chances have increased to 93.83%, with Spurs now boasting just a 6.17% likelihood of succumbing to a once-unfathomable fate.

Roberto De Zerbi’s side need just one point from their remaining fixtures to survive.

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West Ham, Tottenham’s Remaining Fixtures

West Ham	Tottenham
—	Chelsea (A) – May 19
Leeds (H) – May 24	Everton (H) – May 24

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Despite Sunday’s boost, the innate pessimism that resides within every Spurs supporter means few will be considering summer transfer plans and the exciting future that awaits them with De Zerbi at the helm. There have been marked improvements under the Italian, but two tricky fixtures are left.

They always struggle at Stamford Bridge, no matter the quality of the Chelsea team they come up against. Fortunately, victory isn’t necessary on Tuesday night, but it’d be sweet. 10 years on from the ’Battle of the Bridge’ that confirmed Leicester City’s miracle, the Lilywhites could secure safety at the home of their London rivals, who were beaten in the FA Cup final on Saturday.

If their wretched record continues in West London, though, it’ll go to the final day.

West Ham welcome the Leeds team that left the door ajar for Nuno’s men last week, while Spurs face off against a slumping Everton outfit in N17. The Toffees’ European ambitions have dwindled after failing to win any of their previous six games, but traveling teams are ensured plenty of joy when they visit the Lilywhites’ imperious amphitheater.

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