Supercomputer Predicts USMNT’s World Cup Chances After Germany Friendly

Mauricio Pochettino’s side fell to a spirited defeat in Chicago.

Antonee Robinson was on the scoresheet for the USMNT. | Michael Miller/ISI Photos/Getty Images

“I think it was a good performance,” USMNT manager Mauricio Pochettino proclaimed after his side’s narrow defeat to Germany on Saturday.

Hosting the European heavyweights at Soldier Field, the USMNT got off to the worst possible start as Arsenal’s Kai Havertz opened the scoring after just two minutes, before Antonee Robinson sent the two sides into the halftime break level with a stunning strike and an equally extravagant celebration.

Leroy Sané netted shortly before the hour mark to seal a victory for Germany, but Pochettino was keen to avoid downplaying the narrow margin of defeat at the hands of one of the world’s top national teams.

“I am happy with the performance of everyone,” he continued. “We play one of the most important teams in the ​world.

“I think we need to be ​happy with that. We compete, [we were] unlucky, I think it was as ‌an ⁠even game. It was an amazing challenge for us to see how we react, how we show character, how we show togetherness, how we start to play under pressure.”

The USMNT is determined to establish itself as a genuine force heading into this summer’s World Cup, but what does the Opta supercomputer make of Pochettino’s side’s chances in the aftermath of Saturday’s defeat?

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Mauricio Pochettino (right) remains optimistic. | John Dorton/USSF/Getty Images

The friendly appears to have had the desired result for Pochettino as the USMNT’s chances of a deep run this summer have marginally increased after the Germany friendly.

This summer’s co-hosts are still seen as the favorites to finish top of what looks set to be a tense group. Group D also features Türkiye, Paraguay and Australia, and while all three of those teams have every right to feel confident about their own chances of progression, the USMNT is leading the way, backed with a 33.08% likelihood to finish top of the standings.

Even if the USMNT does not have everything go its own way in the group stage, a 77.10% of progressing to the round of 32 means a first-stage elimination would be nothing short of an enormous shock.

With a trip to the knockout stages on the cards, the USMNT must prepare for a significant increase in difficulty. The chances of qualifying for the round of 16 drop down to 42.22% which, while higher than they were before the friendly, are lower than another 15 teams in the competition, highlighting the narrow margins at that stage of the tournament.

Similarly, 15 teams have a superior chance of reaching the quarterfinals which, if the supercomputer is correct, appears to be a step too far for the USMNT. Again, odds of 20.03% are a jump up for the USMNT and they are within touching distance of the numbers for a handful of other clubs. A slice of good fortune may be needed to advance.

Pochettino has previously looked to the semifinals as a dream run for the USMNT, but an 8.68% chance of reaching that stage make clear the challenges at hand. Likewise, a 3.39% chance of reaching the final does not make for good reading on paper, even if it is another increase for the USMNT.

Interestingly, however, the supercomputer has actually reduced the USMNT’s chances of winning the World Cup—the only stage of the tournament at which the team’s chance has dropped. Given just a 1.30% likelihood of the ultimate glory, Pochettino’s men clearly have more work to do if they are to establish themselves as genuine global heavyweights.

World Cup Stage	USMNT’s Chance
Group Winner	33.08%
Round of 32	77.10%
Round of 16	42.22%
Quarterfinals	20.03%
Semifinals	8.68%
Final	3.39%
Winner	1.30%

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