Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Relegation Battle After Tottenham, West Ham Role Reversal

Spurs climbed back into safety at the weekend, sending West Ham to the drop zone.

Tottenham have strung together back-to-back victories. | Adrian Dennis/AFP/Getty Images

The latest twist at the bottom of the Premier League standings came on Sunday when Tottenham Hotspur secured a head-turning 2–1 victory over Aston Villa.

Almost as thrilling as the title race between Arsenal and Manchester City has been the chaotic fight to stay up in the English top flight. At one point, Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and West Ham United were all in contention to join Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Championship next season.

As the 2025–26 campaign comes to a close, though, the relegation battle has become a two-horse race between Spurs and the Hammers. Heading into Gameweek 35, the latter had the edge in 17th place over Roberto De Zerbi’s men, but two monumental swings saw the two clubs switch places.

West Ham suffered a lopsided 3–0 defeat to Brentford on Saturday, opening the door for Tottenham to leapfrog them into safety with a win at Villa Park—and they emphatically delivered.

With only three matches left, here’s how the Opta supercomputer predicts the final relegation battle to play out in the Premier League.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Relegation Battle

Relegation Richy is inevitable. pic.twitter.com/GgiXxewyVy

— Sports Illustrated FC (@SI_FootballClub) May 3, 2026

Position	Club	Current Points	Expected Points	Relegation Chances
15.	Leeds United	43	46.72	0.10%
16.	Nottingham Forest	39	44.12	2.29%
17.	Tottenham	37	40.90	22.48%
18.	West Ham	36	39.22	75.09%
19.	Burnley	20	22.73	100.00%
20.	Wolves	18	21.02	100.00%

Leeds United are well on their way to safety after securing a 3–1 victory over Burnley on Friday. The three points took Daniel Farke’s side to 14th in the table, seven points clear of the drop zone. Although Opta expects the Whites to finish a place below where they currently sit, the club will have little complaints.

Below them are Nottingham Forest, who must wait until Monday to take on Chelsea. Even just a point at Stamford Bridge would see the Tricky Trees reach the magical 40-point mark that typically is enough to stay up. The supercomputer backs Vítor Pereira’s men to indeed remain safe, giving them just a 2.29% chance of relegation.

The real drama comes with Tottenham. Spurs have now tallied back-to-back league victories to obtain a slight cushion in 17th place. Still, they are by no means out of the woods and have 22.48% odds of being relegation for the first time since 1977.

Tottenham’s biggest competitors are West Ham. This weekend’s stumble put the Hammers in the danger zone, prompting Opta to put an overwhelming 75.09% chance on Nuno Espírito Santo’s side playing in the Championship in 2025–26.

Around just a single point is predicted to be the difference between Tottenham and West Ham, though, which means it could come down to the final matchday to ultimately see which side joins Burnley and Wolves in the second tier next season.

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